In last November all the eyes in the Political spectrum were on the Hyderabad Municipal Elections. Voting took place on 1st of December and the results were announced on 4th of December.
No single party got a clear majority, but the election has proved a big turning point in the Telangana Politics. I have tried to analyze the election and its implications on Future Politics of South India.
1. Unshakable AIMIM
- MIM has 44 seats in the last election, and this time they contested only 51 seats. Out of which they were able to maintain their count.
- It’s interesting to note that out of the 44 seats in 2016 they were able to retain 43 of them.
- They have very much concentrated power only in 2 zones majorly, which is the central and the South zone.
- These 2 zones have 93 of the total 150 wards
- This gives a clear message that the power and presence of MIM are still intact in Hyderabad, even after the aggressive campaign of BJP against them.
- MIM has a stronghold in areas of Malakpet, Charminar, Santosh Nagar, Kalaknuma, Chandrayangutta, Rajendra Nagar, Karwan, Mehdipatnam, jubilee hills, Goshamahal, Saroor Nagar, Yousufguda, etc.
2. Big Blow to the TRS
- TRS has won 99/150 seats in the last elections.
- This time due to the aggressive campaign of BJP they have lost a major chunk to them.
- They have emerged as the single largest party with 55 seats but are short of a majority by 21 seats.
- They have straightaway lost 44 seats to the BJP
- Whereas they are able to retain 52/99 seats they won in 2016.
- They were able to gains seats from all the zones except the South zone when the party is not able to win even a single seat from 43 overall seats in the zone.
- TRS has emerged as the single largest party with 55 seats. They are 7 seats ahead of BJP. But the difference in votes share is just 0.35% or just 8400 votes. And this is an alarm for the TRS!
- Since the formation of the state, there has been Dominion of TRS and MIM majorly. They were in both ways helping each other. But the first time a new player has emerged and made the fight into a trio from the duo.
- BJP has clearly dented the TRS and emerged as strong opposition to the TRS in the state.
3. Advent of BJP in Southern Politics
- BJP had only 4 seats in 2016 with a very rough vote share of 2.5 lac.
- But this time BJP performed significantly well because of its high voltage and aggressive campaign.
- They succeeded in attracting the attention of the whole nation towards Hyderabad.
- They not only fought it like state elections but have even campaigned heavily by involving their main leaders like Amit Shah, JP Nadda, YogiAdityanath, Smriti Irani, Devendra Fadnavis into the Campaign.
- They increased their tally from 4 to 48 which is 12 times its previous performance.
- They won 48 seats by creating an impact on all 5 zones. Majorly in the Central and South zone, where their main competitor was MIM.
- In a very short time BJP has succeeded in emerging a strong Opposition to the KCR lead TRS in the state.
- This will surely impact the 2023 Assembly Polls.
4. Why was GHMC so Important for BJP ?
- There are many reasons, like
- It is one of the Metro-city with more than 1 Cr of urban population
- The budget of the GHMC is more than 5000/Cr
- Also as we all know that the BJP less presence in the South, it was evident for them to enter as soon as possible. And GHMC came as an opportunity.
- As per the state politics the TRS enjoyed power with very weak opposition.
- But BJP has not only emerged as a strong opposition but also emerging as an option to TRS, especially after 2019 Loksabha when it won 4 Loksabha seats in Telangana and defeated the daughter of KCR in Nizamabad.
- Telangana was also important as it was the stronghold of AIMIM chief Akbaruddin Owaisi. And the strategy of BJP to campaign aggressively on its ideological ground has succeeded in entering into the Hyderabad, Telangana Politics.
- This election was also seen as a test match before the West Bengal Election in upcoming Summer, where MIM is going to field candidates. This will surely dent the TMC majorly.
- BJP is a cadre-based party and is 24×7 and 365 days into the Election Mode. Due to which the party is able to create momentum among the party workers.
- Now the party is charged and this advent in GHMC will be taken towards the State Assembly Elections in 2023.
5. Impact on the politics of South India
- BJP is a party which was called the Party of the Hindi-Heart Land.
- It had a very minor presence in Southern India except for Karnataka.
- Besides Karnataka, the party had hardly any presence in the state.
- But soon after Amit Shah took over as the Presidentship of the BJP, the party made many successful inroads in states where the party was not even a serious player.
- And their hopes have risen after the results of Loksabha 2019 when the party won 4 seats.
- Most importantly they were able to defeat the daughter of KCR, TRS party Chief in Nizamabad.
- Many times the mainstream media don’t even put a headline of Municipality elections. But this time the party made such an impact that people from all over the Nation were curious about the election results.
- Amit Shah who was hardly seen in Bihar, took so much interest in Hyderabad, was the main reason for the interest of the Media.
- Also the politics in Telangana was very lenient till BJP took Interest.
- Now this advent of BJP will have repercussions on the Telangana Assembly Elections in 2023.
- The party is expanding its roots in the state and hoping to create an impact in the 2023 assembly elections.
- As per as South India is concerned it is majorly dominated by regional parties, but BJP has succeeded in making inroads in Karnataka and Telangana. In Andhra Pradesh it has succeeded in destroying its former ally Chandrababu Naidu, TDP. also they have good support from YSRCP on few issues. In Tamil Nadu, they have aligned with AIADMK and formed a major alliance with some smaller parties. Also Rajnikant has announced his entry into Politics. Ans as per my knowledge BJP is growing in Kerela but something substantial is yet to here from the ground.
- Overall if we see the BJP has shifted its focus to East and South of India, wherein 2024, whatever they lose in North-West, will be compensated from these states.
Hope that I have done justice with the topic.
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Samruddha Bharatam 