8 Lessons I learnt from the Electoral History of West Bengal

1. People vote similarly for the Loksabha and the Vidhan Sabha.

From the below table, we can see that the people of West Bengal have voted for a similar choice in both Elections.
And if there has been a change in their choices it was reflected first in Loksabha and then in Vidhan Sabha.

  • From 1977 we can see that the Lefts were winning both the Loksabha and VidhanSabha simultaneously until 2006 Vidhan sabha.
  • Also there was change first in Loksabha 2009, and then Trinamool-INC won Assembly as well in 2011.
  • Similar thing happened in 1967 as well. Lefts first won the 1967 Loksabha and then the state Assembly Polls.
Electoral History of West Bengal, 1962 to 2019.

2. If people showed a different mandate in Loksabha then the state has witnessed a change in the Assembly as well.

  • If we study the Electoral History of West Bengal we can observe that the people of West Bengal vote in the same way in Loksabha and then in Vidhan Sabha. And whenever there has been anti-incumbency among the people then it has been reflected in the Loksabha first and then in the Vidhan sabha.
  • In 1967, the Left won massively in Loksabha and after that, they were able to win the West Bengal Assembly as well.
  • Similarly before removing Left from the State Assembly, Trinamool won the Loksabha in 2009 with a full Majority.
  • And the history is repeated again. In 2019 people gave a clear mandate to Didi with 22/42 seats.
  • But people also welcomed BJP with the red carpet of making them the key opposition in the state of West Bengal. The pattern also repeated in the recent election as well.

3. Less caste based Politics and more class based or Party dominated Politics.

  • Caste dominance was less in West Bengal from years.
  • Party dominance till the ground level can be very easily observed.
  • Therefore we see many party related violence in West Bengal.

4. No one wants to be out of power. No one wants to be left out.

  • One very important thing to observe is that in West Bengal Politics there has always been 2 key players. other minor players as well.
  • Earlier they were congress and left
  • After congress was split into trinamool, then it was mainly left and trinamool
  • In 2011 and 2016 it was Lefts and Trinamool
  • After 2016 left was 90% wiped out and BJP emerged as the key player.
  • Now the key players are Trinamool and BJP.
  • Bengal has party dominated society. So every one wants to be in power.
  • That is the reason people shifted to BJP from Left after 2016 when they realized that Left is not able to address their concerns.
“Dada Vs Didi”

5. Always a two corner fight and a clear majority government.

  • It would be interesting to know that in last 45 years there has always been a full majority government in West Bengal.
  • No hung assembly in last 45 years.
  • The major reason is the two corner fight.
  • People very well understand the direction of the wind and hence no situation of a hung assembly.

6. Once lost is lost for ever. (Congress and Left)

  • We have understood that there has always been 2 key players in the state politics.
  • Along with it whenever a third payer entered the ring and became the key player, the looser had been finished.
  • Like when Trinamool entered the State Politics, prominence of Congress lowered. But still Congress was a small player till 2011.
  • Similarly now when BJP had entered as the Key player, the Lefts have be wiped out almost.
  • Its very interesting to note that in last 45 year no party once lost was able to retain power in the future elections.
  • Once lost is lost for ever.

7. First an opposition Leader and then the Ruler.

  • Whenever there has been change in the Government, it was never a sudden change.
  • It was always a gradual change. Similar pattern with Lefts, Trinamool and now with the BJP as well.
  • Far before being the CM of Bengal, Jyoti Basu was the Opposition Leader in Bengal Assembly.
  • Similarly before Mamta Didi became the CM, she was also the Opposition Leader in the Assembly.
  • It would be interesting to see whether the pattern/trend/ history repeats with Suvendhu Adhikari or not!
BJP’s Suvendhu Adhikari Defeated CM Mamta Didi in Nandigram.

8. If you want to be the key player in Bengal Politics you need to show guts against the state government. People respects and responds to your courage.

  • We have now understood the pattern and nature of Bengal Politics.
  • If you want to capture the state, you need to go through the chronology which is,
  • first become the key player,
  • then opposition leader,
  • and then the CM.
  • And to become the Key player you have to show guts and win the confidence of the antigovernmental sentiments.
  • on 1960 lefts did the same and captured power, same happened with Didi and now BJP is repeating it.

I hope you have understood few patterns and trends that I have highlighted. Please let me know what you feel about this article in the comment section.

Bengal 2021 Exit Polls

Few Important Observations from Past Elections.

  • Bengal has never given a fractured mandate in the last 40 years. There has been a full majority Government every time.
  • This means that the people of Bengal get the sense of Political winds very quickly and so the majority shifts into the winning ship.
  • Also in Bengal if the people have anti-incumbency it is reflected gradually. Like first in Grampanchayat, then in Loksabha, and then in the State.
  • And once the anti-incumbency wave rises it never returns.
  • Bengal never retained power with any party. Once gone is gone. It happened with congress and lefts as well. They search for new options.
  • This clearly shows that the 2018 Grampanchayat Elections Mandate and the 2019 Loksabha Mandate cannot be ignored.
  • The 18/42 seats won by the BJP are very much significant.

Predictions:

Samruddha Bharatam
EXIT POLL 2021

1. There will be no fractured mandate. Either TMC or BJP will form clear majority government. But I will bet on BJP, as the history of Bengal Electoral Politics is concerned, the Anti-TMC sentiment has started consolidating behind BJP from 2018 local body elections. Yes there are other factors as well which will influence the elections.
BJP – Single Largest Party. Though vote share will be less than TMC.

2. TMC will have highest voteshare but less seats as compared to BJP. Because the third front will cut sufficient seats of TMC to keep it away from Power.

3. ISF has fielded 28 candidates where TMC was leading on 23 seats in 2019. These might be the disadvantage to TMC.

4. BJP will win more seats were SC+ST population is 30%+


5. TMC will win more seats were Minority population is 35%+

Claim 1 : Voter of Left will return back to BJP!

– I think 2-3% may return due to candidates.
– But most of them knew that Left is not going to form government.
– then why to waste vote.
– In Bengal no one wants to be out of the power as the social fabric of the state is more influenced by the Political Parties.
– So the claim I think will turn as false.

Claim 2 : Minority vote will be divided between TMC and the Third Front!

– I think minorities vote for their own interests in their constituencies.
– So they will vote for Congress in Maldah and Murshidabad Districts.
– But majorly they will vote for TMC throughout the state, no doubts.
– But most interesting will be the 28 seats of ISF where there are high chances of vote divide between TMC and ISF.
– Here BJP will gain seats as compared to TMC.
– Most of these seats are in Presidency and Jangal Mahal Area.

Claim 3 : where will the SCST voter swing!

– There is no doubt that the ST category voter is fully supporting the BJP
– This will be reflected in the Jalpaiguri Region or North Bengal.
– SC category voter was supporting BJP on large number in 2019
– But it is observed that a section of it is upset with BJP and is bend towards the TMC
– So regarding SC category voter it might be 70-30…BJP-TMC.

Claim 4 : BJP is a City based or Urban Popular Party.

– This claim has proven wrong as BJP is the party which has gained grounds in Bengal from the Rural areas first.
– 87/120 seats it was leading in 2019 were those seats where Rural population is greater than 50%.
– It still lacks supports in the urban areas of Kolkata.

Only few hours are remaining for the results to come out. Hope there will be a New and Fresh Morning in Bengal Tomorrow!

Bengal vote separately in State and Centre Elections?

We have seen this in 2019 that how people of Odisha voted differently.
Also, We have seen in Jharkhand how the people voted for BJP in Loksabha and for UPA in State Assembly. But will the people of Bengal vote separately in State and Central Elections?

Let us look at the past elections. And see how the people of Bengal voted in different Elections.

History of Bengal Elections

In the above table,
1st Column – Year of Loksabha Elections
2nd Column – The State Mandate for Loksabha
3rd Column – The National Mandate for Loksabha
4th Column – The ongoing State Government

In 1977 before the left took over the state, the Assembly was under Congress.
In Feb 1977, the Loksabha elections took place and the Left swept the elections. Following which the Assembly elections took place in Oct 1977, and the people gave the mandate in favor of the Left only. This is how the people voted similarly in both elections.

And after that, the state’s mood was always in favor of the Lefts, irrespective of Loksabha or Vidhansabha till the 2006 Assembly Elections.

After the 2006 Assembly, TMC realized that NDA won’t benefit them and they switched to UPA, also the anti-Left vote started consolidating behind TMC and INC. And they got their first mandate in the 2008 Gram panchayat elections.
And then in 2009 Loksabha where the people gave the mandate in favor of UPA. And the wave didn’t stop. The UPA gained power in State and Mamta Didi became the first time CM after the Assembly Elections of 2011.

Similar happening with BJP as well. When people realized that left is not able to tackle TMC or address the anti-TMC sentiment, and BJP is a party with all logistics, and a will to take on the TMC Government, the majority of the Anti-TMC vote bank shifted to BJP.
They tested BJP first in 2018 Grampanchayat Elections, and again in 2019 Loksabha. And now BJP has made this a straight fight between TMC-BJP. Cutting the doors of Left voters to return back.
As people have realized that voting to the Left is of no use, as it is not in the condition of forming the government.

Hence empowering BJP.

There is no incident where the people of Bengal voted differently in State and that in Centre.

People have voted in Loksabha similar to their state’s choice.
If their sentiment in public had been against the State Govt then they have reflected this in their mandate of Loksabha as well.

So even if the TMC got 22/42 seats in 2019 Loksabha, the performance of BJP by gaining 18 seats and a 40% vote share can’t be taken lightly. That also within a span of less than 4 years.

The results of West Bengal Elections 2021 will surely be a surprise for all. Because this election will decide the Future Discourse of West Bengal and that of the Indian Politics as well.

No more a Farmer’s Protest ?

Delhi, news media, social media, and the whole nation are churned with only one thing and that is the Farmers Protest.

People and some farmers from Punjab and Haryana protesting on the borders of Delhi for the demand of repealing the 3 Agri laws.

There have been 11 rounds of meeting between the Protestors and the Government. But the deadlock is still intact.

But in the last few months, many incidences happened that have misled the agitation. This has created a big question of whether the protest is actually for the welfare of farmers?

1. Very firstly if we see about the APMCs, there are many states which don’t have APMCs. Either some of them have not yet accepted or have dissolved the act in history. There are 16 states which do not have APMCs. This means that the Agriculture reforms act is less effective in most of the states.

States like Bihar and Kerela don’t have APMCs.

Similarly, regarding Contract farming, a state like Maharashtra is already practicing Contract farming. The Cooperative sugar factories are working on the same model. That is the reason why the state is less involved in the Protest.

Also, the protest has no support from south India.

2. There were some genuine demands of the Protestors regarding the amendment into farm laws like regarding the MSP, contract farming, land security in case of failure of contract or issue settlement with Larger firms.
The leaders of different unions were in talks with the representatives of the farmer’s protest. There had been 11 rounds of negotiations. But no outcome as of now. The government, on one hand, is ready to negotiate on few issues and amend few provisions in the laws but the Protestors are still not satisfied with this.

3. The protesters on 26th Jan decided to have a tractor rally around Delhi. All the legal permissions were sort. But a group among them revolted and destroyed the sanctity of the protest. They broke all the rules and agitated to enter Delhi City. A group even had confrontations with the police. In the agitation, more than 80 police staff members were injured.
A group of few agitators went to the red fort and with the purpose of raising their own organization’s flag, they disrespected the Indian flag.

This attempt to disrespect the national flag that also on Republic Day, hit the nationalistic sentiment of the people. People started expressing their concerns/views on social media. People even started questioning whether the protest is anymore a farmers protest or something else?

4. There was another diversion into the protest when an American pop star Rihanna tweeted about the farmer’s protest. Her single tweet led to a perfect storm in India. Social media got divided into the support or opposition of the pop star.

5. A strong doubt was created on social media regarding the piousness of the protest when Greta Thunberg tweeted for the farmer’s protest with a toolkit. The toolkit had much doubtful content in it. The doubt got stronger when she deleted the toolkit after few hours when she realized that she shared a document which she was not supposed to share.

This not only created a doubt on her tweet but on the genuineness concern about the farmer’s protest. Many of them openly claimed that the tweets of the celebs were a paid one or a part of a pre-planned conspiracy.

6. In response to Greta and Rihanna many Indian celebs started tweeting and reacting on social media. Celebs like Sachin Tendulkar, Ajay Devgan, Akshay Kumar, Karan Johar, Lata Mangeshkar tweet with a nationalistic message. They advocated for the sovereignty of the nation. Due to their similar tweets, their followers were divided into supporters and opposers.

7. It went to a height when the Home Minister of Maharashtra Shri Anil Deshmukh ji stated that they will investigate whether the tweets by the Indian Celebs were under the pressure of any person or organization.
The honorable minister was deeply criticized for his statement and his stand. Many even questioned whether the Home Minister is left with this work of investigating the tweets of the Indian celebs.

And in this way, we could see that the protest has diverted into different directions leading nowhere.

The Protest Started with a strong demand for the concerns of the farmers. But now it has transformed into the Nationalism Debate, Celebrity War, Tweeter War, and tweet investigation.

The real concern is remaining behind due to these diversions.

I hope the farmers get justice in a much proper and effective way.

Farmers Protest

With the intend of Agriculture Reforms, the Central Government brought 3 Farm bills. The main purpose of this bill was to,

  1. Liberate farmers, to sell their crop anywhere
  2. Increase the income of farmers through contract farming
  3. Eliminate or reduce the role of Aadats, and direct sale to increase farmers income
  4. Create an option to the APMC, by permitting the farmers to sell crops outside mandis, and to private firms as well

But as the bills were introduced a lot of opposition came against the government. Today the protest completes 2 weeks and the farmers from Punjab, Haryana, western UP are protesting at the borders of Delhi, blocking the main highways to the National Capital.

It is important to note that the farmers involved in the protest are mainly from states of Punjab, Haryana, and Western UP. These are the main states where the Mandi system or the APMCs are well established. Whereas states like Kerela and Bihar don’t have APMC, and so the intensity is also low there. Also, few farmer leaders are involved in the protest from all over the country.

Besides the Farmers, there are various political parties like, Congress, NCP, Akalis, DMK, SP, RJD, TMC who are also supporting the agitation. It is interesting to know that the Congress party in its 2019 Manifesto has already promised to amend the APMC act. But after seeing the agitation they seem like taking a U-turn. Also, the NCP Supremo in 2010 has sent letters to the State Governments, regarding the amendments in the APMC Act.

Besides all these protests the real issues and concerns of the farmers are getting cornered. The real question is what farmers want?

Farmers gathering near the Highways of Delhi.

In a conversation with a young farmer, I have tried to understand some of their genuine concerns.

  • First is the MSP. According to him, it is ok if farmers don’t get any monetary benefits, subsidies, or any other relief. His core demand is the right amount of price for his crops. And it’s his main demand from the government to ensure the MSP in the law.
  • In Contract Farming, the main demand is the right against exploitation by Corporate firm. Suppose the deal as per the contracting farming is 20/- kg. And the market price of the crop at that time is just 10/- kg. Here the firm is at loss. So here if the firm won’t give him the promised amount then the farmers are in turmoil and exploited by the firms. So here the farmers want assurance of justice and right against exploitation.
  • Now consider the opposite scenario, if the market rate of the crop becomes 40/-kg. Here the firms are in profit but the farmers are in loss. Now here the farmer’s loss needs to be compensated against the market price. Otherwise, how will the farmer earn enough?
  • As per the law, there is no provision for confiscation of land from the farmers. Farmers have a fear that if they have a contract with Big Corporates, and if they fail, they must have the security of land.
  • Also, there is a demand to add the provisions of seeking justice from the civil court in case of exploitation.

Now after the 6 rounds of meetings between the Farmers delegation and the Government, it seems like both the side are firm on their stands. The Government is ready to amend the law and do possible changes, but the protesting farmers are firm on the demand for repealing the law.

It’s finally up to the protestors in what direction they need to take the agitation. But my only concern is if the movement is purely non-political then there must be serious discussions on the real concerns and issues of the farmers. The politicization of the protest will not only damage the sanctity of the protest but will also cover its real motive.

Reforms never have a cakewalk.

They come from the routes of thorns, nails, and sacrifices.

“When we all were al home in lockdown, the Farmers were in fields to feed us.”

5 Takeaways from GHMC Elections 2020

In last November all the eyes in the Political spectrum were on the Hyderabad Municipal Elections. Voting took place on 1st of December and the results were announced on 4th of December.

No single party got a clear majority, but the election has proved a big turning point in the Telangana Politics. I have tried to analyze the election and its implications on Future Politics of South India.

1. Unshakable AIMIM

  • MIM has 44 seats in the last election, and this time they contested only 51 seats. Out of which they were able to maintain their count.
  • It’s interesting to note that out of the 44 seats in 2016 they were able to retain 43 of them.
  • They have very much concentrated power only in 2 zones majorly, which is the central and the South zone.
  • These 2 zones have 93 of the total 150 wards
  • This gives a clear message that the power and presence of MIM are still intact in Hyderabad, even after the aggressive campaign of BJP against them.
  • MIM has a stronghold in areas of Malakpet, Charminar, Santosh Nagar, Kalaknuma, Chandrayangutta, Rajendra Nagar, Karwan, Mehdipatnam, jubilee hills, Goshamahal, Saroor Nagar, Yousufguda, etc.

2. Big Blow to the TRS

  • TRS has won 99/150 seats in the last elections.
  • This time due to the aggressive campaign of BJP they have lost a major chunk to them.
  • They have emerged as the single largest party with 55 seats but are short of a majority by 21 seats.
  • They have straightaway lost 44 seats to the BJP
  • Whereas they are able to retain 52/99 seats they won in 2016.
  • They were able to gains seats from all the zones except the South zone when the party is not able to win even a single seat from 43 overall seats in the zone.
  • TRS has emerged as the single largest party with 55 seats. They are 7 seats ahead of BJP. But the difference in votes share is just 0.35% or just 8400 votes. And this is an alarm for the TRS!
  • Since the formation of the state, there has been Dominion of TRS and MIM majorly. They were in both ways helping each other. But the first time a new player has emerged and made the fight into a trio from the duo.
  • BJP has clearly dented the TRS and emerged as strong opposition to the TRS in the state.
Seats Comparison of GHMC

3. Advent of BJP in Southern Politics

  • BJP had only 4 seats in 2016 with a very rough vote share of 2.5 lac.
  • But this time BJP performed significantly well because of its high voltage and aggressive campaign.
  • They succeeded in attracting the attention of the whole nation towards Hyderabad.
  • They not only fought it like state elections but have even campaigned heavily by involving their main leaders like Amit Shah, JP Nadda, YogiAdityanath, Smriti Irani, Devendra Fadnavis into the Campaign.
  • They increased their tally from 4 to 48 which is 12 times its previous performance.
  • They won 48 seats by creating an impact on all 5 zones. Majorly in the Central and South zone, where their main competitor was MIM.
  • In a very short time BJP has succeeded in emerging a strong Opposition to the KCR lead TRS in the state.
  • This will surely impact the 2023 Assembly Polls.

4. Why was GHMC so Important for BJP ?

  • There are many reasons, like
  • It is one of the Metro-city with more than 1 Cr of urban population
  • The budget of the GHMC is more than 5000/Cr
  • Also as we all know that the BJP less presence in the South, it was evident for them to enter as soon as possible. And GHMC came as an opportunity.
  • As per the state politics the TRS enjoyed power with very weak opposition.
  • But BJP has not only emerged as a strong opposition but also emerging as an option to TRS, especially after 2019 Loksabha when it won 4 Loksabha seats in Telangana and defeated the daughter of KCR in Nizamabad.
  • Telangana was also important as it was the stronghold of AIMIM chief Akbaruddin Owaisi. And the strategy of BJP to campaign aggressively on its ideological ground has succeeded in entering into the Hyderabad, Telangana Politics.
  • This election was also seen as a test match before the West Bengal Election in upcoming Summer, where MIM is going to field candidates. This will surely dent the TMC majorly.
  • BJP is a cadre-based party and is 24×7 and 365 days into the Election Mode. Due to which the party is able to create momentum among the party workers.
  • Now the party is charged and this advent in GHMC will be taken towards the State Assembly Elections in 2023.

5. Impact on the politics of South India

  • BJP is a party which was called the Party of the Hindi-Heart Land.
  • It had a very minor presence in Southern India except for Karnataka.
  • Besides Karnataka, the party had hardly any presence in the state.
  • But soon after Amit Shah took over as the Presidentship of the BJP, the party made many successful inroads in states where the party was not even a serious player.
  • And their hopes have risen after the results of Loksabha 2019 when the party won 4 seats.
  • Most importantly they were able to defeat the daughter of KCR, TRS party Chief in Nizamabad.
  • Many times the mainstream media don’t even put a headline of Municipality elections. But this time the party made such an impact that people from all over the Nation were curious about the election results.
  • Amit Shah who was hardly seen in Bihar, took so much interest in Hyderabad, was the main reason for the interest of the Media.
  • Also the politics in Telangana was very lenient till BJP took Interest.
  • Now this advent of BJP will have repercussions on the Telangana Assembly Elections in 2023.
  • The party is expanding its roots in the state and hoping to create an impact in the 2023 assembly elections.
  • As per as South India is concerned it is majorly dominated by regional parties, but BJP has succeeded in making inroads in Karnataka and Telangana. In Andhra Pradesh it has succeeded in destroying its former ally Chandrababu Naidu, TDP. also they have good support from YSRCP on few issues. In Tamil Nadu, they have aligned with AIADMK and formed a major alliance with some smaller parties. Also Rajnikant has announced his entry into Politics. Ans as per my knowledge BJP is growing in Kerela but something substantial is yet to here from the ground.
  • Overall if we see the BJP has shifted its focus to East and South of India, wherein 2024, whatever they lose in North-West, will be compensated from these states.

Hope that I have done justice with the topic.
Do share if you like my Blog.

Comments are welcomed.

An Art by a Political Commentator on GHMC Elections

11 Lessons from Bihar 2020 Elections

  1. Caste still a factor in Bihar
    • As the voting day was closer and closer, Tejaswi was attracting more and more crowd. But as the voters of Nitish knew this they became more and more silent. This brought them into defense. Usually the floating voter gets influenced with the wave, but here it seemed like this helped in consolidating against the RJD. This I think is due to the caste factor.
    • Caste and social equations were already in favour of NDA, and I think the BJP-JDU knew that in BIHAR it’s more about the caste-religion or social equations. Rather that issues like development, anti-incumbency. And so, they did their campaigning very silently and in organized manner.
    • BJP had a strong hold in West Bihar. Tirhut, Saran Patna used to give them 40-60% of their total seats. While east Bihar was the strong hold of JDU. But this time BJP gained more from East as compared to west. The vote dividers in East has indirectly helped the JDU-BJP in East Bihar.
  2. Gundaraj – still haunting, Nitish still the Sushasan Babu.
    • During a number of interactions, many people openly supported Tejaswi but there were few who reminded us of the Laluji’s Gundaraj. And I could infer from the responses that if youths had more craze about Tejashwi/Chirag, the elder voters used to compare Nitish with Lalu. And they used to definitely say this that even though Nitish has not done anything stupendously great, but his regime is at least better than the Laluji’s Regime.
    • Even I met few college students in Chapra, who were just 17 years old, looked towards Chirag rather than Tejashwi as future CM. When asked about Tejashwi they used to quote him with his father’s regime. This is somewhere I think has proved as a disadvantage to Tejashwi. And that’s the reason that even his father’s image was not there in many of the posters in Bihar.
    • When it comes to Nitish, people have confidence that whatever he had done in Politics, he has never compromised his ethics and his beliefs. His image is still like a Sushasan Babu. He didn’t even own his own home in Patna. Which makes him committed towards his people.
  3. Tejashwi’s Performance
    • RJD performed extremely well in this election according to me. Because this was the first time when Lalu ji was not a part of the Election. This even gave Tejaswi an opportunity to show his Leadership skills. And as a young leader of 31 he has left a mark on everyone’s heart.
    • He made a very good alliance with Congress and the Lefts. Then the campaign was also crowd pulling. He focused more on Social media campaign as well as ground level campaign. He took 10-15 Sabhas daily. This is the actual level of Hard work which is expected from a leader, which is not seen by the Opposition in Centre. The only thing on which the party was relying was the anti-incumbency factor and the young voter. But at last they were not successful in converting crowd into votes. I won’t blame the young champ. He did his best. But one wrong friend can surely pull u down.
    • RJD were successful in gaining seats in Patna, Saran and Magadh region. Which were strong holds of NDA. Also they must be thankful to LJP which helped them indirectly on more than 15 seats
  4. Performance of Left:
    • One of the best parts of the MG was the incorporation of the Left leaning parties in their alliance. Left has sizable presence in some constituencies. And Tejashwi have given them enough chance to prove their worth. 16/29 I think is a good score. At least better that the Congress.
  5. MIM is seen as a rising hope for Muslims in Bihar.
    • The unexpected rise of MIM in Bihar is indicative that if Secular parties like Congress and RJD won’t deliver then they may shift towards an Extreme party like MIM.
    • Also, it’s interesting to note that MIM just fielded 20 odd candidates, got 5-6 lakh votes and was able to grab 5 seats in Bihar. This shows how keen they were in this election.
    • Secondly it is said that MIM was like voter cutter for MG. But as per my analysis no seat I found where the RJD lost due to MIM’s candidate.
    • MIM fought on 20 seats amongst which they won 5 seats, 11 seats went to MG and 4 seats went to NDA. And these 4 seats which went to NDA didn’t have MIM as a major voter cutter.
  6. Muslim dominated seats:
    • There are around 38 seats where the Muslim population is greater than 26%. Here it is seen that the NDA has gained a good score. BJP-13, JDU-9, INC-5, RJD-5, CP-1, AIMIM-5.
    • Also, one more point to add is that the MIM has proved to be Seat Cutter than Vote Cutter. Nowhere else there has been a condition where the MG lost any seat due to MIM.
  7. Congress more a liability for Alliances:
    • I think Congress is one of the main reasons behind the defeat of the Mahagathbandhan. Because when an alliance bestows more trust by giving 70 seats, more than its actually strength then it’s the party’s responsibility to perform well.
    • They were hardly able to win 19/70 seats. Even the Communists performed better than Congress. Already they are known for worst in transferring it’s vote bank. But now they are even not able to pull seats with stronger partners. They will not get anything if they today blame MIM for cutting their votes. Even their core voter will search for option if Congress won’t deliver.
    • The biggest disadvantage that the Congress had was they had a straight fight against BJP on 37/70 seats. From which the Congress won only 8/37 while BJP won 29/37 seats. This also could have been the tactics of RJD to give more BJP rival seats to Congress.
    • There is a lack of serious leadership not only in Bihar Congress but also at the Central level.
    • Congress is proving to be a liability for its partners. Like the way it performed in Maharashtra, UP and now in Bihar.
  8. LJP’s successful Gambit:
    • LJP became a serious factor when JDU was trying to pull leaders from RJD and trying to pitch for more seats in the Alliance. When it became stubborn on leaving seats for LJP then the LJP decided to opt out of the Alliance. Here BJP was looking to accommodate LJP but JDU seemed stubborn. And this then went against LJP. And then BJP played the gambit of Pitching LJP candidates against JDU only.
    • At this point only I sensed that LJP was not interested in state politics but they just wanted to show that they can certainly dent JDU. And the objective was achieved. This indirectly helped BJP in being the biggest player of NDA in Bihar. Now BJP has more leverage than JDU in Bihar. And even though LJP failed they are still with BJP at the centre. This was a big lesson for the JDU.
    • LJP dented JDU on 18 seats.
  9. Underestimated JDU:
    • Though everything was not ok for the JDU, its performance was quite good to at least save the NDA. There were 2 major factor s which were against the party. They were the Anti-incumbency and the LJP factor. JDU suffered on 18 seats due to LJP. And the motive of LJP seems successful in denting the numbers of JDU. The voters of JDU are silent and less vocal. Even when we were in Patna, we hardly found any Nitish Kumar’s firm supporter. RJD and BJPs voters were very much vocal.
    • Also, the 15% voters of JDU are the King makers and itself King from the last 5 Elections. The voters of Nitish Kumar are loyal with him and he is equally loyal with them. That’s why they don’t criticize him openly and just go and vote him. It won’t matter whether he goes with right BJP or Left RJD. They just believe in their Leader which is Nitish Kumar. And this has made him indisputable since 5-6 elections till today.
  10. Underestimating VIP, Blunder by Tejashwi:
    • At this point when the fight was so close for MG, it seems like underestimating a small party like the VIP was one of the major blunder of the RJD.
    • Mukesh Sahani, the son of Mallah, has around 10-15 lakh voters in Bihar. He just wanted handful of seats to represent his people. And the first priority he gave was to RJD led MG. But we all saw how he was forced to leave the alliance.
    • And the spontaneous decision taken by Mukesh Sahani today seems like a wise decision. This will surely haunt the RJD now. Because they didn’t saw the support of 10-15 Lakh Mallah voters. And at this position when he is able to grab 4 seats, he becomes a crucial player in Bihar Politics. Even the extra 20 seats of Congress if given to VIP could have gained better results.
    • Today even though Mukesh Sahani has lost his own seat but he has proved as a strong Leader of his Community on state level. This will surely haunt the RJD.
  11. BJP – The Smartest Player:
    • I would claim BJP as the smartest player in Bihar Elections 2020. There are 2 factors behind my claim. First is the way they kept their flock together and secondly the calculated move of LJP’s gambit.
    • Giving the CM post to JDU is itself benefiting the BJP by keeping its flocks together. Like in Maharashtra where the party was divided into factions in 2019, they wanted to avoid this in Bihar by giving a face.
    • This also has given BJP enough time to groom and test few faces in coming 5 years. CM face is a crisis in BJP Bihar. That’s why they chose Nitish to keep their flock together. This also gave a strong message to Shivsena, that they stand by their words, and they didn’t gave any word to them before Maharashtra 2019 Elections.
    • The strategy of BJP was straight and clear. They retained tickets of 51/53 MLAs and targeted seats which they loss by less than 11000 in 2015. This showed that they were confident about 70 seats. That’s why when LJP opted out from NDA, they smartly convinced LJP to not to field candidates against them. This helped them in increasing their leverage in the alliance.
    • It seems like BJP learned from NCP that it’s not about the CM post but about the leverage you have in an alliance and the perception you build in the minds of people.

Bihar Election was my First Election where I experienced it from ground. The results were unexpected but the lessons learned will be life long cherishing. Hope you like my Blog. Please feel Free to share your views and thoughts. Thank You!

My Bihar 2020 Exit Poll

Bihar Elections Prediction

  • RJD: According to me RJD has understood that their MY formula is not sufficient to win the elections and the BJP-JDU have successfully defeated this formula. So by understanding their limitations the RJD has chalked out a new formula of Social Engineering where it has consolidated its core and focused on making its party, open for all like BJP. And the most important part of this strategy was to attract the youths who have not seen the Lalu Prasad’s Regime. So there are cases where the is Nitish supporter and his own son is Tejashwi supporter. This is because the father could easily compared the Lalu Raj with Nitish’s Raj. And so the formula becomes MYY- Muslims, Yadavs, youths(from all). Even if we minus the JDU’s vote bank last time, RJD will get JDU’s minority vote share.
  • Congress: It was a lottery for Congress to get 70 Seats in an alliance where it actually has very less strength. But this strength came with a disadvantage that RJD gave Congress most of its weak seats. In Bihar it is quite clear that BJP is more stronger than the Congress. and Congress is weak in transferring it’s vote share to its allies. Congress has a disadvantage of facing direct fight with BJP only 37 seats. They will not cross single digit according to my Prediction. This could have been the strategy of RJD as well. They will not cross 10% in vote share.
  • Communists: If Congress is weak in MG then I would say Communists is strong in MG. This will benefit the RJD. They are fighting on 29 seats. And the way they have given their 100% is commendable. People from JNU and Southern states came to Bihar for Campaigning.
  • BJP : I think the wisest player in the whole Campaign was BJP. Because it knew that all the anti-incumbency was against Nitish Kumar. So posing Chirag Paswan only against JDU has helped them to shift all the blame on Nitish Kumar. Also the LJP factor has helped them to keep its voters intact. Also it has successfully confused the Anti-incumbency voters by posing Chirag as an potential Opposition to Nitish Kumar.
  • JDU : JDU will be the most damaged as per my opinion. But it will still gain support of its natural voters. Only it will loose it’s minority voters. And also a sizeable vote share of the Rajputs. This is because LJP has given tickets to many Rajput leaders and also it’s unclear whether the BJP would 100% transfer it’s vote to JDU or some to LJP.
  • HAM : They are fighting on 7 seats. They are know for transferring vote share to its allies.
  • VIP : Its quite hard to predict but it have sizeable voteshare in Bihar and is fighting on 11 seats.
  • LJP: The very unexpected player in this Election is proving to be a spoiler for JDU. They will get full support of their traditional voters. The thing they will gain is the votes of Uppercaste and Rajputs who are traditionally BJP voters. Lack of coordination on ground between BJP-JDU voters indicates that all is not fine in NDA. And there is a clear doubt that whether the BJP’s Votebank will be transferred to JDU or not. Bcoz even many of the defects of BJP are given tickets in LJP who are from RSS background.

To Summarize,

There is a clear edge for MG. After seeing this it seems like there could be hung assembly but the most interesting part that even if both will get same voteshare there will be a wide difference when they will be converted into seats.
And the reason for this is the coordination of parties with the alliances. The coordination with MG was seen very much smooth as compared to NDA. Also there was clarity regarding all the concerns among the alliance. While in NDA the LJP had openly opposed Nitish Kumar and opt out of the alliance creating doubt on CM. But the LJP was equally soft regarding BJP. and so they fielded no candidates against the BJP. LJP will prove as a vote cutter for JDU. This move was played to ensure that the JDUs seats are lessened in the alliance. But this proving to opt out NDA from the government. So all is not well in NDA, to cut short. This might hamper in results. Even if NDAs vote share is greater that MG by not less than 2%. This will not be converted into seats. As the MGs Vote bank is clear, focused and consolidated.

Other smaller Predictions

  1. NDA will not cross 100
  2. MG will not cross 140
  3. BJP will gain more in West Bihar of Tirhut Patna Magadh and Saran region around 40-50
  4. RJD will loose more to BJP and gain more from JDU
  5. East Bihar is largely dependent on vote cutters. If parties like MIM/JAP/LJSP gain sizeable vote they will cut the votes of RJD. And hence will profit NDA and BJP majorly.
  6. Clear majority for Tejashwi will be ensured only if MG sweeps East Bihar and only if it is able to consolidate it’s votebank.
  7. If RJD fails in areas of Seemanchal and Purnia there will be a hung assembly.
  8. LJP will damage the JDU on 25-35 seats majorly. Will gain sizeable votes of 2nd and 3rd position on 10-17 seats. And will be able to win 4-11 seats with 5-8% voteshare!

These are just my predictions as a Political Analyst Student. It might even go to another into unexpected direction also. On 10th it will be clear. But as a Student I must keep on studying people’s mandate. And will keep on delivering.

Now lets Wait and Watch!

Investigative Journalism: 4th Pillar in Democracy ?

Finally SC orders Sushant’s Case to CBI!

Today it has been 65 days, to the unfortunate passing of Sushant Singh Rajput. And still people and his fans are not able to digest that a highly intellectual and successful actor like Sushant could ever commit a suicide.

Also a lot of questions were unanswered and the way his case was being handled, left a lot of doubt in the mind of the People.

When no doubts were clearly satisfied, the case transformed into a nation wide agitation. People stood for Sushant, showed their solidarity and demanded the CBI investigation. The CBI demand was raised on the social media platform where millions of people all over the world tweeted for justice.

But in this agitation there was a man who made sure that the issue does not get out of the daily headlines. He addressed each and every single doubt which was bothering the family of the late actor and the people as well. It was not less than a media trial. He followed each and every suspect, questioned each and every person linked to the case. Where other media houses dropped the story after few weeks he didn’t stopped. He is none other than @ArnabGoswami

The Way he kept the issue burning in his daily debates, and the way he showed that the investigation is not satisfying, made even the Maharashtra Govt to look into this case more seriously. Some people even tried to politicize it, but today they all are unmasked. After the SC order there are Journalists who question the actor’s family and about the media trial, have forgotten their own power of Investigation and Research based Journalism.

In Democracy, Legislature is to make laws, Executive is to ensure whether they are being followed or not, Judiciary to settle issues and give Justice,

If the above 3 are failing to address them then Research and Investigative Journalism is coming forth to address people’s concerns.

Entertainment or Propaganda?

Yesterday I was watching the film Kedarnath, inspired by the acting of Sushant Singh Rajput.

I loved his acting a lot and the theme as well. But then I observed few traits which shows us how Films are used as Soft targets to propagate hidden agendas.

In Kedarnath the script is basically a love story between a Muslim boy and a Hindu girl, and a glimpse of the tragedy of Uttarakhand floods of 2012.
From the starting the characters of the actress’s fiance who is head of the temple priest is painted as grey. And later on it shows how he demeans and beats the Muslim guy who is obviously generous and painted as a good human. Later also a scene comes when the love story is opened up before the girl’s father and things become complicated in their family where the fiance uses manpower to convince the guy to leave the town.

Its very easy to paint this when the story is a fiction where u have your own canvas, our own colours and your own painters. And at the end the same guy is portrait as a big hearted sacrificer for humanity.

I have no hard feelings as this is at last a #fictionalstory.

My blood boils when the real stories are twisted, when the history is moulded by the film makers to suit their own requirements. To make business when they don’t have their own original script writers.

I would like to mention here about the film Shikara. Where the tragedy of KashmiriPandits were out shadowed. As if they don’t matter or the tragedy didn’t happen.

In Kedarnath movie very easily the temple pandits are painted grey as the story is fiction. But in Shikara when we all knew the history and the real villains, there was no mention of the causes, reasons and architects of the exodus.
Why???

Why were they hided?
Why were the real villians not shown on the screen?
Whom are these directors working for?
Who gave them rights to twist and use the history as per their will?

This is not acceptable. Believe it or not but films does make an impact on our society. And if those are being used as medium to propagate an agenda, then it’s high time to take action and boycott such movies and such filmmakers.

#SushantSinghRajput
#Kedarnath
#BanShikara
#KashmiriPandits
#FakePropaganda