8 Lessons I learnt from the Electoral History of West Bengal

1. People vote similarly for the Loksabha and the Vidhan Sabha.

From the below table, we can see that the people of West Bengal have voted for a similar choice in both Elections.
And if there has been a change in their choices it was reflected first in Loksabha and then in Vidhan Sabha.

  • From 1977 we can see that the Lefts were winning both the Loksabha and VidhanSabha simultaneously until 2006 Vidhan sabha.
  • Also there was change first in Loksabha 2009, and then Trinamool-INC won Assembly as well in 2011.
  • Similar thing happened in 1967 as well. Lefts first won the 1967 Loksabha and then the state Assembly Polls.
Electoral History of West Bengal, 1962 to 2019.

2. If people showed a different mandate in Loksabha then the state has witnessed a change in the Assembly as well.

  • If we study the Electoral History of West Bengal we can observe that the people of West Bengal vote in the same way in Loksabha and then in Vidhan Sabha. And whenever there has been anti-incumbency among the people then it has been reflected in the Loksabha first and then in the Vidhan sabha.
  • In 1967, the Left won massively in Loksabha and after that, they were able to win the West Bengal Assembly as well.
  • Similarly before removing Left from the State Assembly, Trinamool won the Loksabha in 2009 with a full Majority.
  • And the history is repeated again. In 2019 people gave a clear mandate to Didi with 22/42 seats.
  • But people also welcomed BJP with the red carpet of making them the key opposition in the state of West Bengal. The pattern also repeated in the recent election as well.

3. Less caste based Politics and more class based or Party dominated Politics.

  • Caste dominance was less in West Bengal from years.
  • Party dominance till the ground level can be very easily observed.
  • Therefore we see many party related violence in West Bengal.

4. No one wants to be out of power. No one wants to be left out.

  • One very important thing to observe is that in West Bengal Politics there has always been 2 key players. other minor players as well.
  • Earlier they were congress and left
  • After congress was split into trinamool, then it was mainly left and trinamool
  • In 2011 and 2016 it was Lefts and Trinamool
  • After 2016 left was 90% wiped out and BJP emerged as the key player.
  • Now the key players are Trinamool and BJP.
  • Bengal has party dominated society. So every one wants to be in power.
  • That is the reason people shifted to BJP from Left after 2016 when they realized that Left is not able to address their concerns.
“Dada Vs Didi”

5. Always a two corner fight and a clear majority government.

  • It would be interesting to know that in last 45 years there has always been a full majority government in West Bengal.
  • No hung assembly in last 45 years.
  • The major reason is the two corner fight.
  • People very well understand the direction of the wind and hence no situation of a hung assembly.

6. Once lost is lost for ever. (Congress and Left)

  • We have understood that there has always been 2 key players in the state politics.
  • Along with it whenever a third payer entered the ring and became the key player, the looser had been finished.
  • Like when Trinamool entered the State Politics, prominence of Congress lowered. But still Congress was a small player till 2011.
  • Similarly now when BJP had entered as the Key player, the Lefts have be wiped out almost.
  • Its very interesting to note that in last 45 year no party once lost was able to retain power in the future elections.
  • Once lost is lost for ever.

7. First an opposition Leader and then the Ruler.

  • Whenever there has been change in the Government, it was never a sudden change.
  • It was always a gradual change. Similar pattern with Lefts, Trinamool and now with the BJP as well.
  • Far before being the CM of Bengal, Jyoti Basu was the Opposition Leader in Bengal Assembly.
  • Similarly before Mamta Didi became the CM, she was also the Opposition Leader in the Assembly.
  • It would be interesting to see whether the pattern/trend/ history repeats with Suvendhu Adhikari or not!
BJP’s Suvendhu Adhikari Defeated CM Mamta Didi in Nandigram.

8. If you want to be the key player in Bengal Politics you need to show guts against the state government. People respects and responds to your courage.

  • We have now understood the pattern and nature of Bengal Politics.
  • If you want to capture the state, you need to go through the chronology which is,
  • first become the key player,
  • then opposition leader,
  • and then the CM.
  • And to become the Key player you have to show guts and win the confidence of the antigovernmental sentiments.
  • on 1960 lefts did the same and captured power, same happened with Didi and now BJP is repeating it.

I hope you have understood few patterns and trends that I have highlighted. Please let me know what you feel about this article in the comment section.

Bengal vote separately in State and Centre Elections?

We have seen this in 2019 that how people of Odisha voted differently.
Also, We have seen in Jharkhand how the people voted for BJP in Loksabha and for UPA in State Assembly. But will the people of Bengal vote separately in State and Central Elections?

Let us look at the past elections. And see how the people of Bengal voted in different Elections.

History of Bengal Elections

In the above table,
1st Column – Year of Loksabha Elections
2nd Column – The State Mandate for Loksabha
3rd Column – The National Mandate for Loksabha
4th Column – The ongoing State Government

In 1977 before the left took over the state, the Assembly was under Congress.
In Feb 1977, the Loksabha elections took place and the Left swept the elections. Following which the Assembly elections took place in Oct 1977, and the people gave the mandate in favor of the Left only. This is how the people voted similarly in both elections.

And after that, the state’s mood was always in favor of the Lefts, irrespective of Loksabha or Vidhansabha till the 2006 Assembly Elections.

After the 2006 Assembly, TMC realized that NDA won’t benefit them and they switched to UPA, also the anti-Left vote started consolidating behind TMC and INC. And they got their first mandate in the 2008 Gram panchayat elections.
And then in 2009 Loksabha where the people gave the mandate in favor of UPA. And the wave didn’t stop. The UPA gained power in State and Mamta Didi became the first time CM after the Assembly Elections of 2011.

Similar happening with BJP as well. When people realized that left is not able to tackle TMC or address the anti-TMC sentiment, and BJP is a party with all logistics, and a will to take on the TMC Government, the majority of the Anti-TMC vote bank shifted to BJP.
They tested BJP first in 2018 Grampanchayat Elections, and again in 2019 Loksabha. And now BJP has made this a straight fight between TMC-BJP. Cutting the doors of Left voters to return back.
As people have realized that voting to the Left is of no use, as it is not in the condition of forming the government.

Hence empowering BJP.

There is no incident where the people of Bengal voted differently in State and that in Centre.

People have voted in Loksabha similar to their state’s choice.
If their sentiment in public had been against the State Govt then they have reflected this in their mandate of Loksabha as well.

So even if the TMC got 22/42 seats in 2019 Loksabha, the performance of BJP by gaining 18 seats and a 40% vote share can’t be taken lightly. That also within a span of less than 4 years.

The results of West Bengal Elections 2021 will surely be a surprise for all. Because this election will decide the Future Discourse of West Bengal and that of the Indian Politics as well.

No more a Farmer’s Protest ?

Delhi, news media, social media, and the whole nation are churned with only one thing and that is the Farmers Protest.

People and some farmers from Punjab and Haryana protesting on the borders of Delhi for the demand of repealing the 3 Agri laws.

There have been 11 rounds of meeting between the Protestors and the Government. But the deadlock is still intact.

But in the last few months, many incidences happened that have misled the agitation. This has created a big question of whether the protest is actually for the welfare of farmers?

1. Very firstly if we see about the APMCs, there are many states which don’t have APMCs. Either some of them have not yet accepted or have dissolved the act in history. There are 16 states which do not have APMCs. This means that the Agriculture reforms act is less effective in most of the states.

States like Bihar and Kerela don’t have APMCs.

Similarly, regarding Contract farming, a state like Maharashtra is already practicing Contract farming. The Cooperative sugar factories are working on the same model. That is the reason why the state is less involved in the Protest.

Also, the protest has no support from south India.

2. There were some genuine demands of the Protestors regarding the amendment into farm laws like regarding the MSP, contract farming, land security in case of failure of contract or issue settlement with Larger firms.
The leaders of different unions were in talks with the representatives of the farmer’s protest. There had been 11 rounds of negotiations. But no outcome as of now. The government, on one hand, is ready to negotiate on few issues and amend few provisions in the laws but the Protestors are still not satisfied with this.

3. The protesters on 26th Jan decided to have a tractor rally around Delhi. All the legal permissions were sort. But a group among them revolted and destroyed the sanctity of the protest. They broke all the rules and agitated to enter Delhi City. A group even had confrontations with the police. In the agitation, more than 80 police staff members were injured.
A group of few agitators went to the red fort and with the purpose of raising their own organization’s flag, they disrespected the Indian flag.

This attempt to disrespect the national flag that also on Republic Day, hit the nationalistic sentiment of the people. People started expressing their concerns/views on social media. People even started questioning whether the protest is anymore a farmers protest or something else?

4. There was another diversion into the protest when an American pop star Rihanna tweeted about the farmer’s protest. Her single tweet led to a perfect storm in India. Social media got divided into the support or opposition of the pop star.

5. A strong doubt was created on social media regarding the piousness of the protest when Greta Thunberg tweeted for the farmer’s protest with a toolkit. The toolkit had much doubtful content in it. The doubt got stronger when she deleted the toolkit after few hours when she realized that she shared a document which she was not supposed to share.

This not only created a doubt on her tweet but on the genuineness concern about the farmer’s protest. Many of them openly claimed that the tweets of the celebs were a paid one or a part of a pre-planned conspiracy.

6. In response to Greta and Rihanna many Indian celebs started tweeting and reacting on social media. Celebs like Sachin Tendulkar, Ajay Devgan, Akshay Kumar, Karan Johar, Lata Mangeshkar tweet with a nationalistic message. They advocated for the sovereignty of the nation. Due to their similar tweets, their followers were divided into supporters and opposers.

7. It went to a height when the Home Minister of Maharashtra Shri Anil Deshmukh ji stated that they will investigate whether the tweets by the Indian Celebs were under the pressure of any person or organization.
The honorable minister was deeply criticized for his statement and his stand. Many even questioned whether the Home Minister is left with this work of investigating the tweets of the Indian celebs.

And in this way, we could see that the protest has diverted into different directions leading nowhere.

The Protest Started with a strong demand for the concerns of the farmers. But now it has transformed into the Nationalism Debate, Celebrity War, Tweeter War, and tweet investigation.

The real concern is remaining behind due to these diversions.

I hope the farmers get justice in a much proper and effective way.

Entertainment or Propaganda?

Yesterday I was watching the film Kedarnath, inspired by the acting of Sushant Singh Rajput.

I loved his acting a lot and the theme as well. But then I observed few traits which shows us how Films are used as Soft targets to propagate hidden agendas.

In Kedarnath the script is basically a love story between a Muslim boy and a Hindu girl, and a glimpse of the tragedy of Uttarakhand floods of 2012.
From the starting the characters of the actress’s fiance who is head of the temple priest is painted as grey. And later on it shows how he demeans and beats the Muslim guy who is obviously generous and painted as a good human. Later also a scene comes when the love story is opened up before the girl’s father and things become complicated in their family where the fiance uses manpower to convince the guy to leave the town.

Its very easy to paint this when the story is a fiction where u have your own canvas, our own colours and your own painters. And at the end the same guy is portrait as a big hearted sacrificer for humanity.

I have no hard feelings as this is at last a #fictionalstory.

My blood boils when the real stories are twisted, when the history is moulded by the film makers to suit their own requirements. To make business when they don’t have their own original script writers.

I would like to mention here about the film Shikara. Where the tragedy of KashmiriPandits were out shadowed. As if they don’t matter or the tragedy didn’t happen.

In Kedarnath movie very easily the temple pandits are painted grey as the story is fiction. But in Shikara when we all knew the history and the real villains, there was no mention of the causes, reasons and architects of the exodus.
Why???

Why were they hided?
Why were the real villians not shown on the screen?
Whom are these directors working for?
Who gave them rights to twist and use the history as per their will?

This is not acceptable. Believe it or not but films does make an impact on our society. And if those are being used as medium to propagate an agenda, then it’s high time to take action and boycott such movies and such filmmakers.

#SushantSinghRajput
#Kedarnath
#BanShikara
#KashmiriPandits
#FakePropaganda

Sena giving up ‘HINDUTVA’

Maharashtra Elections held in Oct-Nov 2019 has seen the biggest drama in the History of State Politics. Where we saw that the two hardcore Rightist Parties departed on the issue of CM post. Sena-NCP-Cong allied to corner the Devendra Fadnavis led BJP in Maharashtra.

This is less surprising as this is a common trait in Politics, but whats more astonishing is the change in the stands of Sena on certain issues especially when it comes to ideology. Lets go through it in a series.

1. The day of the depart is very important. It was a day before the verdict of the most controversial case of RamJanma Bhoomi. Both the parties were at the forefront in this issue from the time, Balasaheb took a firm stand on RamJanma bhoomi. Together BJP-Sena’s whole life went fighting for Ram Mandir. But indeed just a day before the Precious Verdict, the Sena departed with their longest partner.

2. After the verdict the Sena Chief said that he will visit Ayodhya on 24th Nov. But it took more than 100 days for a party with Hindutva Ideology to pay tribute to his ideal. This shows the attitude of the Sena Chief towards the Ideology.

3. In January there was an issue errupted when the Cong released a booklet defaming Swatantra Veer Savarkar. So the grandson of Veer Savarkar, Ranjit Savarkar raised his voice against it and for support he reached out to CM of Maharashtra. But surprisingly the permission was denied. This showed how the Ideals become less important after gaining power. This attitude showed clearly that there is some settlement within the trio.

4. Recently one incident happened where a young girl named Karishma raised her voice against the Loudspeaker on Mosques. As loudspeaker not an integral part of the religion as said by the Allahabad High Court. She was upheld for her bravery by may right wing parties and organisations. But Sena is seen distancing from her. No one even tweeted for her. People are doubting whether this is the same sena who first embraced the car sevaks who demolished the controversial Babri Mosque Tomb.

5. The same trend was noticed yesterday. On the Day of Aashadi Ekadashi.

a. Firstly the CM son Left the most auspicious Aashadi Ekadashi Pooja in the middle and sat in the car. Many people said that he might be feeling suffocated.

b. Then after the pooja, people noticed that the CM did not put tilaks on their forehead which is an auspecious ritual in every pooja or temple.

c. In the Afternoon on news came which shook the party. Everyone tried to clear the issue but the beans were already spelled. The thing decided that was all the Padukas from different temples across Maharashtra were to be brought to Pandharpur by Bus and all the expenses were to be beared by the Maharashtra Government. But in the afternoon a news got viral that a minister took 71000/- mount for the Bus provided to the Nivruttinath Maharaj Paduka Mandal. As the ministers and other party people rushed to cover the issue, the CM and his party has to face embarassment.

All these series of incidents are symbolic and have a common message for the masses. That the Ideology is kept aside by the people for the sake of Power. And today each and every person not only miss the Strong Hearted Balasaheb Thackeray but also his commitment towards his Ideology, Hindutva.

Sena giving up ‘HINDUTVA’

Delhi Elections: Lage Raho Kejriwal…!

#Delhi_Elections_2020

– One of the wisest Voters we have ever seen. Bcoz they have voted distinctly in Loksabha and Vidhan Sabha.
This shows how clear and smart they are. They knew who is best for the State and Who is Best for the Nation.
And this is seen not once but twice, in LS 2014, VS 2015 and LS 2019, VS 2020 #Loksabha, #Vidhansabha respectively.

#Freebeez It did work for them. Starting from free water to free Pilgrimages for the senior citizens.
200 unit of Free Electricity for every Household was one of the most popular one.
Then the free metro/bus rides for Women also found effective.

#Shaheen_Baug As this was the only issue where the BJP was hoping to get some entry. It did work. Bcoz the the #Okhla seat where the Shaheen Baug is, is won by the AAP with 70000+ votes with Minority votes Consolidation.
Whereas #Manish_Sisodiya and Atishi the Architect of Educational Model in Delhi had to struggle till the last few rounds.

– AAP had a strong #CM_face whereas the BJP lacked the CM face which would make a mass appeal and consolidate some votes. This gave an edge to AAP in the whole Campaigning as well.

– Only_Local_issues_Matter Many journalist commented that the Delhi had rejected the NPR CAA NRC. But as we have earlier seen that the people had a clear understanding for whom to vote when. This trend is seen twice.

#Lesson_4_BJP : Though the party increased its vote share and seats share they failed to make a dent on the AAP government.
-They must understand that Regional and National issues must be kept separate.
-Local Leadership needs to be given more Opportunities to rise.

-Transfer of #Congress_Votes_to_AAP
-Its clear from the Numbers that there was an informal Understanding where the -Congress didn’t perform in order to help the AAP to win and keep the BJP away from the Power. This strategy was also seen in Jharkhand and Maharashtra as well.
-Bcoz the voters of the AAP are the same as the Congress. So Increase in Congress Votes would indirectly cut the votes of AAP, and hence favouring The BJP.

-BJP yet a Key Player : When I was going through the voter turnout and total votes cast, I found a very interesting thing. Though the Congress lost its vote share by 4.76 lakhs, the addition of AAP is just 52000 votes only. But the most interesting part is that the BJP increased its vote share by around 6.51 Lakhs as compared to 2015. I will disscuss this in a separate blog regarding the total analysis and its reasons.

Atlast we just hope that the AAP keeps on Working as they did And be On their Words!
All the Best #Aam_Aadmi_Party👍
The CM #Arvind_Kejriwal 👍

#Delhi_Election_Results_2020🙏

Adultery

CJI Dipak Misra retired last month. Before retiring he gave a series of  crucial decisions among which the Decision to scrap 497 was one of them. In the following we will be covering the major aspects of the law along with the advancement made in the law.
Marriage: When there is a couple who builds a consent within themselves and ties the knot of their committed relationship then it is generally called as a Marriage. We must note here that the consent is a very important aspect here. even if there is no consent from either side, the relationship collapses.
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OLD LAW

Adultery IPC 497 : When a person has a sexual intercourse with the wife of another man without the consent of that man is called as Adultery. The man who is involved in the adultery is guilty of the offence of adultery, who shall be imprisoned or fined or both under IPC 497. In this case the women was not considered as the abettor. Abettor means one who influences or convinces someone to commit the crime.
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In the earlier law there was a slight difference which showed discrimination between a man involved in the adultery and a woman involved in the adultery. As per the law, when a married man had an sexual intercourse with another women, without the consent of his wife, the law didn’t applied there. This clearly discriminated between the man and the woman. Even the woman did not had the freedom. Whereas the woman involved in the adultery either married or bachelor cannot be charged under IPC 497. This shows that men had the freedom in adultery whereas the women did not.
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NEW LAW
When a PIL was filed in December 2017, to strike down the law, the Supreme Court accepted it. An argument was laid which stated the violence of article 14 and article 15 of the Constitution.
Article 14:- Equality before law The State shall not deny to any person equality before the law or the equal protection of the laws within the territory of India Prohibition of discrimination on grounds of religion, race, caste, sex or place of birth
Article 15:- The State shall not discriminate against any citizen on grounds only of religion, race, caste, sex, place of birth or any of them

Listening to the arguments of both the parties, the Supreme Court then decided to scrap down the law. There were few observations by the Judges.

  • Under article 198, law gave only the husband the right to file a case against the man involved in the act of adultery.
  • That concludes to a belief that the woman belong to her husband only.
  • That does not gave the woman the freedom for her own thoughts and feelings, even if she voluntarily does a consented intercourse.
On 27th September 2018 a Five Judge Constitution Bench of the Supreme Court of India decided to scrap this IPC 497.

Now according to the new law if a married woman has a sexual intercourse with another man then the husband cannot file a case against the man involved in the adultery. But on the basis of adultery he can demand Divorce from his wife.
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Also, it is very important to note the changes. Equality before law with Gender Neutrality is taken care of by the Supreme Court of India.
  • Now both the partners are free to have sexual intercourse with the person of their choice. 
  • No legal action will be taken against the ones involved in the Adultery.
  • But this wont mean Adultery is legal.
  • Adultery still remains the base for Divorce.
While reading the judgement, Chief Justice Dipak Misra said, “it (adultery) cannot be a criminal offence,” however it can be a ground for civil issues like divorce.
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Gandhi Jayanti 2018

This is a Small Tribute to the Father of Our Nation!!!
You must have shocked that what is the 4th one doing there. Don’t get suprise it’s just the latest one which completely relates us with the Modern India.
Since Independence India has undergone multiple advances and development. Similarly Computer has changed its shape from as large as the room to the hands. Today Mobile has become one of the most useful device which has replaced many things. This helped man to ease the tedious of the tedious jobs. But humans have taken it beyond a specific purpose. Today humans have become more dependent on mobiles.
Social Change: Due to Social Networking Sites a man can connect with a person with in any corner of the world. Truely we can say that Internet has shortened the distance between two people. But its not the whole scenario. If mobile is able to connect two corners of the world then it also has created distances with ur immediate neighbors as well. Today people are so engrossed in their own world that they hardly have any attention around themselves. Youth are more prone to this condition as they are more friendly with this technology. If we ask people of one generation earlier, they would tell how they used to build their relations only with vocal and real communications. Today it’s getting lappsed. We as a human being must get aware of these things that we are humans first.
Man has made machine for comfort and not for peace and happiness.
Machines are to be used and humans are to be Loved.
There are many advantages of the Mobile too but at last machines are machines, they cannot replace a single man.
If Gandhiji would have been there today he would have unfortunately involved this 4th Monkey with the three!!!

Sikkim’s First Airport Pakyong!!

Introduction
 
Pakyong Airport is the Greenfield Airport the State Capital Gangtok. It is India’s 100th Operational Airport in India. It is approximately 4500 ft from the sea level. One of the 5 biggest Airports in India. First Greenfield Airport in the Northeast. Only Airport in the State. One of the tallest reinforced soil structures in the world.
Background of the Project
Sikkim was the only state which didn’t have any operational Airport of its own. They either used the Bagdogra Airport, which is 124 Kms in the Neighbouring State of West Bengal or the Paro Airport in the Bhutan. So in 2008 the Cabinet Committee gave the approval for the development of the Pakyong Airport. The Foundation stone was laid by the then Civil Aviation Minister, Prafulla Patel.
The Airport was estimated to be complete till 2012. But due to the agitations from the local people this was halted till 2014. The local people demanded proper rehabilitation and security. Later in 2014 the AAI took initiative, discussed with the people and gave some part of the compensation. This helped in starting the work again. But in 2015 the villagers again protested and the project was again halted.  Later in 2015 the state Government signed a MOU with the AAI and promised to help the villagers in safe and securely shifting and rehabilitating. This helped the AAI to finally start it’s work till the end of 2015. Due to this protests and the landslides upslope of the runway resulted in the Escalation of its cost from 309 Crore Rupees to 605 Crore Rupees.
On 24th September 2018, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated the
Airport. And flights will start commencing from 4th of October between Guwahati and Kolkata.
Strategic Importance
Last year we saw some tensions going on regarding the Doklam region with China. Doklam is the region with 3 International Borders. And it is near to this Airport within 54kms. So this Airport might play an Important Strategic role in Future.
Twitter Pics