Bengal 2021 Exit Polls

Few Important Observations from Past Elections.

  • Bengal has never given a fractured mandate in the last 40 years. There has been a full majority Government every time.
  • This means that the people of Bengal get the sense of Political winds very quickly and so the majority shifts into the winning ship.
  • Also in Bengal if the people have anti-incumbency it is reflected gradually. Like first in Grampanchayat, then in Loksabha, and then in the State.
  • And once the anti-incumbency wave rises it never returns.
  • Bengal never retained power with any party. Once gone is gone. It happened with congress and lefts as well. They search for new options.
  • This clearly shows that the 2018 Grampanchayat Elections Mandate and the 2019 Loksabha Mandate cannot be ignored.
  • The 18/42 seats won by the BJP are very much significant.

Predictions:

Samruddha Bharatam
EXIT POLL 2021

1. There will be no fractured mandate. Either TMC or BJP will form clear majority government. But I will bet on BJP, as the history of Bengal Electoral Politics is concerned, the Anti-TMC sentiment has started consolidating behind BJP from 2018 local body elections. Yes there are other factors as well which will influence the elections.
BJP – Single Largest Party. Though vote share will be less than TMC.

2. TMC will have highest voteshare but less seats as compared to BJP. Because the third front will cut sufficient seats of TMC to keep it away from Power.

3. ISF has fielded 28 candidates where TMC was leading on 23 seats in 2019. These might be the disadvantage to TMC.

4. BJP will win more seats were SC+ST population is 30%+


5. TMC will win more seats were Minority population is 35%+

Claim 1 : Voter of Left will return back to BJP!

– I think 2-3% may return due to candidates.
– But most of them knew that Left is not going to form government.
– then why to waste vote.
– In Bengal no one wants to be out of the power as the social fabric of the state is more influenced by the Political Parties.
– So the claim I think will turn as false.

Claim 2 : Minority vote will be divided between TMC and the Third Front!

– I think minorities vote for their own interests in their constituencies.
– So they will vote for Congress in Maldah and Murshidabad Districts.
– But majorly they will vote for TMC throughout the state, no doubts.
– But most interesting will be the 28 seats of ISF where there are high chances of vote divide between TMC and ISF.
– Here BJP will gain seats as compared to TMC.
– Most of these seats are in Presidency and Jangal Mahal Area.

Claim 3 : where will the SCST voter swing!

– There is no doubt that the ST category voter is fully supporting the BJP
– This will be reflected in the Jalpaiguri Region or North Bengal.
– SC category voter was supporting BJP on large number in 2019
– But it is observed that a section of it is upset with BJP and is bend towards the TMC
– So regarding SC category voter it might be 70-30…BJP-TMC.

Claim 4 : BJP is a City based or Urban Popular Party.

– This claim has proven wrong as BJP is the party which has gained grounds in Bengal from the Rural areas first.
– 87/120 seats it was leading in 2019 were those seats where Rural population is greater than 50%.
– It still lacks supports in the urban areas of Kolkata.

Only few hours are remaining for the results to come out. Hope there will be a New and Fresh Morning in Bengal Tomorrow!

Farmers Protest

With the intend of Agriculture Reforms, the Central Government brought 3 Farm bills. The main purpose of this bill was to,

  1. Liberate farmers, to sell their crop anywhere
  2. Increase the income of farmers through contract farming
  3. Eliminate or reduce the role of Aadats, and direct sale to increase farmers income
  4. Create an option to the APMC, by permitting the farmers to sell crops outside mandis, and to private firms as well

But as the bills were introduced a lot of opposition came against the government. Today the protest completes 2 weeks and the farmers from Punjab, Haryana, western UP are protesting at the borders of Delhi, blocking the main highways to the National Capital.

It is important to note that the farmers involved in the protest are mainly from states of Punjab, Haryana, and Western UP. These are the main states where the Mandi system or the APMCs are well established. Whereas states like Kerela and Bihar don’t have APMC, and so the intensity is also low there. Also, few farmer leaders are involved in the protest from all over the country.

Besides the Farmers, there are various political parties like, Congress, NCP, Akalis, DMK, SP, RJD, TMC who are also supporting the agitation. It is interesting to know that the Congress party in its 2019 Manifesto has already promised to amend the APMC act. But after seeing the agitation they seem like taking a U-turn. Also, the NCP Supremo in 2010 has sent letters to the State Governments, regarding the amendments in the APMC Act.

Besides all these protests the real issues and concerns of the farmers are getting cornered. The real question is what farmers want?

Farmers gathering near the Highways of Delhi.

In a conversation with a young farmer, I have tried to understand some of their genuine concerns.

  • First is the MSP. According to him, it is ok if farmers don’t get any monetary benefits, subsidies, or any other relief. His core demand is the right amount of price for his crops. And it’s his main demand from the government to ensure the MSP in the law.
  • In Contract Farming, the main demand is the right against exploitation by Corporate firm. Suppose the deal as per the contracting farming is 20/- kg. And the market price of the crop at that time is just 10/- kg. Here the firm is at loss. So here if the firm won’t give him the promised amount then the farmers are in turmoil and exploited by the firms. So here the farmers want assurance of justice and right against exploitation.
  • Now consider the opposite scenario, if the market rate of the crop becomes 40/-kg. Here the firms are in profit but the farmers are in loss. Now here the farmer’s loss needs to be compensated against the market price. Otherwise, how will the farmer earn enough?
  • As per the law, there is no provision for confiscation of land from the farmers. Farmers have a fear that if they have a contract with Big Corporates, and if they fail, they must have the security of land.
  • Also, there is a demand to add the provisions of seeking justice from the civil court in case of exploitation.

Now after the 6 rounds of meetings between the Farmers delegation and the Government, it seems like both the side are firm on their stands. The Government is ready to amend the law and do possible changes, but the protesting farmers are firm on the demand for repealing the law.

It’s finally up to the protestors in what direction they need to take the agitation. But my only concern is if the movement is purely non-political then there must be serious discussions on the real concerns and issues of the farmers. The politicization of the protest will not only damage the sanctity of the protest but will also cover its real motive.

Reforms never have a cakewalk.

They come from the routes of thorns, nails, and sacrifices.

“When we all were al home in lockdown, the Farmers were in fields to feed us.”

5 Takeaways from GHMC Elections 2020

In last November all the eyes in the Political spectrum were on the Hyderabad Municipal Elections. Voting took place on 1st of December and the results were announced on 4th of December.

No single party got a clear majority, but the election has proved a big turning point in the Telangana Politics. I have tried to analyze the election and its implications on Future Politics of South India.

1. Unshakable AIMIM

  • MIM has 44 seats in the last election, and this time they contested only 51 seats. Out of which they were able to maintain their count.
  • It’s interesting to note that out of the 44 seats in 2016 they were able to retain 43 of them.
  • They have very much concentrated power only in 2 zones majorly, which is the central and the South zone.
  • These 2 zones have 93 of the total 150 wards
  • This gives a clear message that the power and presence of MIM are still intact in Hyderabad, even after the aggressive campaign of BJP against them.
  • MIM has a stronghold in areas of Malakpet, Charminar, Santosh Nagar, Kalaknuma, Chandrayangutta, Rajendra Nagar, Karwan, Mehdipatnam, jubilee hills, Goshamahal, Saroor Nagar, Yousufguda, etc.

2. Big Blow to the TRS

  • TRS has won 99/150 seats in the last elections.
  • This time due to the aggressive campaign of BJP they have lost a major chunk to them.
  • They have emerged as the single largest party with 55 seats but are short of a majority by 21 seats.
  • They have straightaway lost 44 seats to the BJP
  • Whereas they are able to retain 52/99 seats they won in 2016.
  • They were able to gains seats from all the zones except the South zone when the party is not able to win even a single seat from 43 overall seats in the zone.
  • TRS has emerged as the single largest party with 55 seats. They are 7 seats ahead of BJP. But the difference in votes share is just 0.35% or just 8400 votes. And this is an alarm for the TRS!
  • Since the formation of the state, there has been Dominion of TRS and MIM majorly. They were in both ways helping each other. But the first time a new player has emerged and made the fight into a trio from the duo.
  • BJP has clearly dented the TRS and emerged as strong opposition to the TRS in the state.
Seats Comparison of GHMC

3. Advent of BJP in Southern Politics

  • BJP had only 4 seats in 2016 with a very rough vote share of 2.5 lac.
  • But this time BJP performed significantly well because of its high voltage and aggressive campaign.
  • They succeeded in attracting the attention of the whole nation towards Hyderabad.
  • They not only fought it like state elections but have even campaigned heavily by involving their main leaders like Amit Shah, JP Nadda, YogiAdityanath, Smriti Irani, Devendra Fadnavis into the Campaign.
  • They increased their tally from 4 to 48 which is 12 times its previous performance.
  • They won 48 seats by creating an impact on all 5 zones. Majorly in the Central and South zone, where their main competitor was MIM.
  • In a very short time BJP has succeeded in emerging a strong Opposition to the KCR lead TRS in the state.
  • This will surely impact the 2023 Assembly Polls.

4. Why was GHMC so Important for BJP ?

  • There are many reasons, like
  • It is one of the Metro-city with more than 1 Cr of urban population
  • The budget of the GHMC is more than 5000/Cr
  • Also as we all know that the BJP less presence in the South, it was evident for them to enter as soon as possible. And GHMC came as an opportunity.
  • As per the state politics the TRS enjoyed power with very weak opposition.
  • But BJP has not only emerged as a strong opposition but also emerging as an option to TRS, especially after 2019 Loksabha when it won 4 Loksabha seats in Telangana and defeated the daughter of KCR in Nizamabad.
  • Telangana was also important as it was the stronghold of AIMIM chief Akbaruddin Owaisi. And the strategy of BJP to campaign aggressively on its ideological ground has succeeded in entering into the Hyderabad, Telangana Politics.
  • This election was also seen as a test match before the West Bengal Election in upcoming Summer, where MIM is going to field candidates. This will surely dent the TMC majorly.
  • BJP is a cadre-based party and is 24×7 and 365 days into the Election Mode. Due to which the party is able to create momentum among the party workers.
  • Now the party is charged and this advent in GHMC will be taken towards the State Assembly Elections in 2023.

5. Impact on the politics of South India

  • BJP is a party which was called the Party of the Hindi-Heart Land.
  • It had a very minor presence in Southern India except for Karnataka.
  • Besides Karnataka, the party had hardly any presence in the state.
  • But soon after Amit Shah took over as the Presidentship of the BJP, the party made many successful inroads in states where the party was not even a serious player.
  • And their hopes have risen after the results of Loksabha 2019 when the party won 4 seats.
  • Most importantly they were able to defeat the daughter of KCR, TRS party Chief in Nizamabad.
  • Many times the mainstream media don’t even put a headline of Municipality elections. But this time the party made such an impact that people from all over the Nation were curious about the election results.
  • Amit Shah who was hardly seen in Bihar, took so much interest in Hyderabad, was the main reason for the interest of the Media.
  • Also the politics in Telangana was very lenient till BJP took Interest.
  • Now this advent of BJP will have repercussions on the Telangana Assembly Elections in 2023.
  • The party is expanding its roots in the state and hoping to create an impact in the 2023 assembly elections.
  • As per as South India is concerned it is majorly dominated by regional parties, but BJP has succeeded in making inroads in Karnataka and Telangana. In Andhra Pradesh it has succeeded in destroying its former ally Chandrababu Naidu, TDP. also they have good support from YSRCP on few issues. In Tamil Nadu, they have aligned with AIADMK and formed a major alliance with some smaller parties. Also Rajnikant has announced his entry into Politics. Ans as per my knowledge BJP is growing in Kerela but something substantial is yet to here from the ground.
  • Overall if we see the BJP has shifted its focus to East and South of India, wherein 2024, whatever they lose in North-West, will be compensated from these states.

Hope that I have done justice with the topic.
Do share if you like my Blog.

Comments are welcomed.

An Art by a Political Commentator on GHMC Elections

11 Lessons from Bihar 2020 Elections

  1. Caste still a factor in Bihar
    • As the voting day was closer and closer, Tejaswi was attracting more and more crowd. But as the voters of Nitish knew this they became more and more silent. This brought them into defense. Usually the floating voter gets influenced with the wave, but here it seemed like this helped in consolidating against the RJD. This I think is due to the caste factor.
    • Caste and social equations were already in favour of NDA, and I think the BJP-JDU knew that in BIHAR it’s more about the caste-religion or social equations. Rather that issues like development, anti-incumbency. And so, they did their campaigning very silently and in organized manner.
    • BJP had a strong hold in West Bihar. Tirhut, Saran Patna used to give them 40-60% of their total seats. While east Bihar was the strong hold of JDU. But this time BJP gained more from East as compared to west. The vote dividers in East has indirectly helped the JDU-BJP in East Bihar.
  2. Gundaraj – still haunting, Nitish still the Sushasan Babu.
    • During a number of interactions, many people openly supported Tejaswi but there were few who reminded us of the Laluji’s Gundaraj. And I could infer from the responses that if youths had more craze about Tejashwi/Chirag, the elder voters used to compare Nitish with Lalu. And they used to definitely say this that even though Nitish has not done anything stupendously great, but his regime is at least better than the Laluji’s Regime.
    • Even I met few college students in Chapra, who were just 17 years old, looked towards Chirag rather than Tejashwi as future CM. When asked about Tejashwi they used to quote him with his father’s regime. This is somewhere I think has proved as a disadvantage to Tejashwi. And that’s the reason that even his father’s image was not there in many of the posters in Bihar.
    • When it comes to Nitish, people have confidence that whatever he had done in Politics, he has never compromised his ethics and his beliefs. His image is still like a Sushasan Babu. He didn’t even own his own home in Patna. Which makes him committed towards his people.
  3. Tejashwi’s Performance
    • RJD performed extremely well in this election according to me. Because this was the first time when Lalu ji was not a part of the Election. This even gave Tejaswi an opportunity to show his Leadership skills. And as a young leader of 31 he has left a mark on everyone’s heart.
    • He made a very good alliance with Congress and the Lefts. Then the campaign was also crowd pulling. He focused more on Social media campaign as well as ground level campaign. He took 10-15 Sabhas daily. This is the actual level of Hard work which is expected from a leader, which is not seen by the Opposition in Centre. The only thing on which the party was relying was the anti-incumbency factor and the young voter. But at last they were not successful in converting crowd into votes. I won’t blame the young champ. He did his best. But one wrong friend can surely pull u down.
    • RJD were successful in gaining seats in Patna, Saran and Magadh region. Which were strong holds of NDA. Also they must be thankful to LJP which helped them indirectly on more than 15 seats
  4. Performance of Left:
    • One of the best parts of the MG was the incorporation of the Left leaning parties in their alliance. Left has sizable presence in some constituencies. And Tejashwi have given them enough chance to prove their worth. 16/29 I think is a good score. At least better that the Congress.
  5. MIM is seen as a rising hope for Muslims in Bihar.
    • The unexpected rise of MIM in Bihar is indicative that if Secular parties like Congress and RJD won’t deliver then they may shift towards an Extreme party like MIM.
    • Also, it’s interesting to note that MIM just fielded 20 odd candidates, got 5-6 lakh votes and was able to grab 5 seats in Bihar. This shows how keen they were in this election.
    • Secondly it is said that MIM was like voter cutter for MG. But as per my analysis no seat I found where the RJD lost due to MIM’s candidate.
    • MIM fought on 20 seats amongst which they won 5 seats, 11 seats went to MG and 4 seats went to NDA. And these 4 seats which went to NDA didn’t have MIM as a major voter cutter.
  6. Muslim dominated seats:
    • There are around 38 seats where the Muslim population is greater than 26%. Here it is seen that the NDA has gained a good score. BJP-13, JDU-9, INC-5, RJD-5, CP-1, AIMIM-5.
    • Also, one more point to add is that the MIM has proved to be Seat Cutter than Vote Cutter. Nowhere else there has been a condition where the MG lost any seat due to MIM.
  7. Congress more a liability for Alliances:
    • I think Congress is one of the main reasons behind the defeat of the Mahagathbandhan. Because when an alliance bestows more trust by giving 70 seats, more than its actually strength then it’s the party’s responsibility to perform well.
    • They were hardly able to win 19/70 seats. Even the Communists performed better than Congress. Already they are known for worst in transferring it’s vote bank. But now they are even not able to pull seats with stronger partners. They will not get anything if they today blame MIM for cutting their votes. Even their core voter will search for option if Congress won’t deliver.
    • The biggest disadvantage that the Congress had was they had a straight fight against BJP on 37/70 seats. From which the Congress won only 8/37 while BJP won 29/37 seats. This also could have been the tactics of RJD to give more BJP rival seats to Congress.
    • There is a lack of serious leadership not only in Bihar Congress but also at the Central level.
    • Congress is proving to be a liability for its partners. Like the way it performed in Maharashtra, UP and now in Bihar.
  8. LJP’s successful Gambit:
    • LJP became a serious factor when JDU was trying to pull leaders from RJD and trying to pitch for more seats in the Alliance. When it became stubborn on leaving seats for LJP then the LJP decided to opt out of the Alliance. Here BJP was looking to accommodate LJP but JDU seemed stubborn. And this then went against LJP. And then BJP played the gambit of Pitching LJP candidates against JDU only.
    • At this point only I sensed that LJP was not interested in state politics but they just wanted to show that they can certainly dent JDU. And the objective was achieved. This indirectly helped BJP in being the biggest player of NDA in Bihar. Now BJP has more leverage than JDU in Bihar. And even though LJP failed they are still with BJP at the centre. This was a big lesson for the JDU.
    • LJP dented JDU on 18 seats.
  9. Underestimated JDU:
    • Though everything was not ok for the JDU, its performance was quite good to at least save the NDA. There were 2 major factor s which were against the party. They were the Anti-incumbency and the LJP factor. JDU suffered on 18 seats due to LJP. And the motive of LJP seems successful in denting the numbers of JDU. The voters of JDU are silent and less vocal. Even when we were in Patna, we hardly found any Nitish Kumar’s firm supporter. RJD and BJPs voters were very much vocal.
    • Also, the 15% voters of JDU are the King makers and itself King from the last 5 Elections. The voters of Nitish Kumar are loyal with him and he is equally loyal with them. That’s why they don’t criticize him openly and just go and vote him. It won’t matter whether he goes with right BJP or Left RJD. They just believe in their Leader which is Nitish Kumar. And this has made him indisputable since 5-6 elections till today.
  10. Underestimating VIP, Blunder by Tejashwi:
    • At this point when the fight was so close for MG, it seems like underestimating a small party like the VIP was one of the major blunder of the RJD.
    • Mukesh Sahani, the son of Mallah, has around 10-15 lakh voters in Bihar. He just wanted handful of seats to represent his people. And the first priority he gave was to RJD led MG. But we all saw how he was forced to leave the alliance.
    • And the spontaneous decision taken by Mukesh Sahani today seems like a wise decision. This will surely haunt the RJD now. Because they didn’t saw the support of 10-15 Lakh Mallah voters. And at this position when he is able to grab 4 seats, he becomes a crucial player in Bihar Politics. Even the extra 20 seats of Congress if given to VIP could have gained better results.
    • Today even though Mukesh Sahani has lost his own seat but he has proved as a strong Leader of his Community on state level. This will surely haunt the RJD.
  11. BJP – The Smartest Player:
    • I would claim BJP as the smartest player in Bihar Elections 2020. There are 2 factors behind my claim. First is the way they kept their flock together and secondly the calculated move of LJP’s gambit.
    • Giving the CM post to JDU is itself benefiting the BJP by keeping its flocks together. Like in Maharashtra where the party was divided into factions in 2019, they wanted to avoid this in Bihar by giving a face.
    • This also has given BJP enough time to groom and test few faces in coming 5 years. CM face is a crisis in BJP Bihar. That’s why they chose Nitish to keep their flock together. This also gave a strong message to Shivsena, that they stand by their words, and they didn’t gave any word to them before Maharashtra 2019 Elections.
    • The strategy of BJP was straight and clear. They retained tickets of 51/53 MLAs and targeted seats which they loss by less than 11000 in 2015. This showed that they were confident about 70 seats. That’s why when LJP opted out from NDA, they smartly convinced LJP to not to field candidates against them. This helped them in increasing their leverage in the alliance.
    • It seems like BJP learned from NCP that it’s not about the CM post but about the leverage you have in an alliance and the perception you build in the minds of people.

Bihar Election was my First Election where I experienced it from ground. The results were unexpected but the lessons learned will be life long cherishing. Hope you like my Blog. Please feel Free to share your views and thoughts. Thank You!

My Bihar 2020 Exit Poll

Bihar Elections Prediction

  • RJD: According to me RJD has understood that their MY formula is not sufficient to win the elections and the BJP-JDU have successfully defeated this formula. So by understanding their limitations the RJD has chalked out a new formula of Social Engineering where it has consolidated its core and focused on making its party, open for all like BJP. And the most important part of this strategy was to attract the youths who have not seen the Lalu Prasad’s Regime. So there are cases where the is Nitish supporter and his own son is Tejashwi supporter. This is because the father could easily compared the Lalu Raj with Nitish’s Raj. And so the formula becomes MYY- Muslims, Yadavs, youths(from all). Even if we minus the JDU’s vote bank last time, RJD will get JDU’s minority vote share.
  • Congress: It was a lottery for Congress to get 70 Seats in an alliance where it actually has very less strength. But this strength came with a disadvantage that RJD gave Congress most of its weak seats. In Bihar it is quite clear that BJP is more stronger than the Congress. and Congress is weak in transferring it’s vote share to its allies. Congress has a disadvantage of facing direct fight with BJP only 37 seats. They will not cross single digit according to my Prediction. This could have been the strategy of RJD as well. They will not cross 10% in vote share.
  • Communists: If Congress is weak in MG then I would say Communists is strong in MG. This will benefit the RJD. They are fighting on 29 seats. And the way they have given their 100% is commendable. People from JNU and Southern states came to Bihar for Campaigning.
  • BJP : I think the wisest player in the whole Campaign was BJP. Because it knew that all the anti-incumbency was against Nitish Kumar. So posing Chirag Paswan only against JDU has helped them to shift all the blame on Nitish Kumar. Also the LJP factor has helped them to keep its voters intact. Also it has successfully confused the Anti-incumbency voters by posing Chirag as an potential Opposition to Nitish Kumar.
  • JDU : JDU will be the most damaged as per my opinion. But it will still gain support of its natural voters. Only it will loose it’s minority voters. And also a sizeable vote share of the Rajputs. This is because LJP has given tickets to many Rajput leaders and also it’s unclear whether the BJP would 100% transfer it’s vote to JDU or some to LJP.
  • HAM : They are fighting on 7 seats. They are know for transferring vote share to its allies.
  • VIP : Its quite hard to predict but it have sizeable voteshare in Bihar and is fighting on 11 seats.
  • LJP: The very unexpected player in this Election is proving to be a spoiler for JDU. They will get full support of their traditional voters. The thing they will gain is the votes of Uppercaste and Rajputs who are traditionally BJP voters. Lack of coordination on ground between BJP-JDU voters indicates that all is not fine in NDA. And there is a clear doubt that whether the BJP’s Votebank will be transferred to JDU or not. Bcoz even many of the defects of BJP are given tickets in LJP who are from RSS background.

To Summarize,

There is a clear edge for MG. After seeing this it seems like there could be hung assembly but the most interesting part that even if both will get same voteshare there will be a wide difference when they will be converted into seats.
And the reason for this is the coordination of parties with the alliances. The coordination with MG was seen very much smooth as compared to NDA. Also there was clarity regarding all the concerns among the alliance. While in NDA the LJP had openly opposed Nitish Kumar and opt out of the alliance creating doubt on CM. But the LJP was equally soft regarding BJP. and so they fielded no candidates against the BJP. LJP will prove as a vote cutter for JDU. This move was played to ensure that the JDUs seats are lessened in the alliance. But this proving to opt out NDA from the government. So all is not well in NDA, to cut short. This might hamper in results. Even if NDAs vote share is greater that MG by not less than 2%. This will not be converted into seats. As the MGs Vote bank is clear, focused and consolidated.

Other smaller Predictions

  1. NDA will not cross 100
  2. MG will not cross 140
  3. BJP will gain more in West Bihar of Tirhut Patna Magadh and Saran region around 40-50
  4. RJD will loose more to BJP and gain more from JDU
  5. East Bihar is largely dependent on vote cutters. If parties like MIM/JAP/LJSP gain sizeable vote they will cut the votes of RJD. And hence will profit NDA and BJP majorly.
  6. Clear majority for Tejashwi will be ensured only if MG sweeps East Bihar and only if it is able to consolidate it’s votebank.
  7. If RJD fails in areas of Seemanchal and Purnia there will be a hung assembly.
  8. LJP will damage the JDU on 25-35 seats majorly. Will gain sizeable votes of 2nd and 3rd position on 10-17 seats. And will be able to win 4-11 seats with 5-8% voteshare!

These are just my predictions as a Political Analyst Student. It might even go to another into unexpected direction also. On 10th it will be clear. But as a Student I must keep on studying people’s mandate. And will keep on delivering.

Now lets Wait and Watch!

Investigative Journalism: 4th Pillar in Democracy ?

Finally SC orders Sushant’s Case to CBI!

Today it has been 65 days, to the unfortunate passing of Sushant Singh Rajput. And still people and his fans are not able to digest that a highly intellectual and successful actor like Sushant could ever commit a suicide.

Also a lot of questions were unanswered and the way his case was being handled, left a lot of doubt in the mind of the People.

When no doubts were clearly satisfied, the case transformed into a nation wide agitation. People stood for Sushant, showed their solidarity and demanded the CBI investigation. The CBI demand was raised on the social media platform where millions of people all over the world tweeted for justice.

But in this agitation there was a man who made sure that the issue does not get out of the daily headlines. He addressed each and every single doubt which was bothering the family of the late actor and the people as well. It was not less than a media trial. He followed each and every suspect, questioned each and every person linked to the case. Where other media houses dropped the story after few weeks he didn’t stopped. He is none other than @ArnabGoswami

The Way he kept the issue burning in his daily debates, and the way he showed that the investigation is not satisfying, made even the Maharashtra Govt to look into this case more seriously. Some people even tried to politicize it, but today they all are unmasked. After the SC order there are Journalists who question the actor’s family and about the media trial, have forgotten their own power of Investigation and Research based Journalism.

In Democracy, Legislature is to make laws, Executive is to ensure whether they are being followed or not, Judiciary to settle issues and give Justice,

If the above 3 are failing to address them then Research and Investigative Journalism is coming forth to address people’s concerns.

GOA Congress : Hero to Zero!

Yesterday 10 Congress MLAs defected from the party and merged with the Ruling party BJP. The largest party in the Goa Assembly is now reduced to a handfull of few members. But the real question is How come the condition of the Grand Old Party became so worse?
It didn’t happened in a day. There is a series of events which took place and led to this outcome in the past 28 months.
We have summaries the whole Goa Drama into the respective events. And the changing scenario of the Goa Legislative Assembly.
Hope you find it Interesting!

1. On 11th March 2017 Results of Goa Vidhan Sabha were declared in which the ruling BJP govt got a severe Defeating winning 13 of the 40 seats. While the Congress emerged as the single largest party with 17 seats. It was almost clear that the Congress would form the Govt. But the scenario changes overnight. Within a night all the other MLAs were approached by the BJP and were convinced to support BJP led Govt only if Manohar Parrikar led the Government. And hence the BJP with 13 + 8 allies claimed to form the Government. All the overnight task was undertaken by Nitin Gadkari and the Goa team. Whereas the Congress Goa Observer Digvijay Singh was had no clue about it. And on 13th the BJP formed Government in Goa.
2. On 13th of March one of the Congress MLA Vishwajeet Rane resign from the Assembly stating the he was angry with the Party Leadership for being incompetent to form a coalition even after being the Single largest party. Now the Congress at 16 and the Assembly total at 39.
3. Soon after the Resignation Vishwajeet Rane jumped in BJP and won the By-elections on BJP Ticket. Now the BJP at 14 and Congress 16.
4. Within 2 months 2 more Congress MLA’s resigned from the Assembly. The Mandrem MLA, Dayanand Sopte and Siroda MLA, Subhash Shirodkar send their resignations the party heads. Now both the BJP and Congress at 14 and assembly at 38. As per the law elections are to be held within 6 months of resignation. Elections on these seats were held along with the Loksabha Elections.
5. On 14th February 2019, there was an unexpected death of the Mapusa MLA, Francis D’souza. This brought the BJP to 13 and Congress to 14.
6. The Biggest setback for the BJP was the Death of the GOA CM Manohar Parrikar. This caused a great grief to the party. The Goa Politics was void with a Strong Political Leadership. But within no loss of time Pramod Sawant was selected as the new GOA CM by the party. He successfully passed the floor test also. There were total 11 ministers which included the 2 Deputy CM.
7. On 27 march 2019, 2 of the 3 MGP MLAs merged with the BJP. As the anti-defection law is inapplicable here they just added to the tally if the BJP. Now both the Congress and the BJP are at 14.
8. There were 4 assembly seats vacant due to the resignation of 2 Congress MLAs and passing away of the FORMER CM and the Mapusa MLA. By-elections were held at these seats along with the Loksabha. On 23rd May results were declared. BJP won 3 of the 4 seats but lost the crucial Panaji seat of the Former CM to the Congress Candidate. The 2 defected Congress MLA won from Mandrem and Siroda on BJP Ticket. Now the BJP is at 17 and Congress at 15.
9. And finally 10 of the 15 MLAs defected from the Congress and merged with the BJP. Here also the anti-defection law was not applicable. Due to the incomplete and hurdles in getting the work done in the Constituency urged them to take such a step. It is important to note that this happened after the resignation of Rahul Gandhi as the Party President. The defected MLAs even blamed the weak Central leadership of the party. Now the Congress party is left with just 5 MLAs. And the BJP has doubled its tally from 13 to 27.
This is how the Political scenario in Goa has changed from a Grand old party being the largest and lastly becoming the smallest party in the Assembly.
Similarly even after loosing the election the BJP was on their toes to form and run the Government. 

Now they even don’t need the support of their allies to be in the Ruling Position.
We could infer this as the impact of the Centralized Leadership.

Battle of Rajasthan 2018 Assembly

On 11th of December The Election results of the 5 very crucial States were out. Where BJP lost its power in 3 of its Strong states, while Congress did a good comeback by performing well in these three states. Telangana and Mizoram went with the clear sweep to the TRS and the MNF resp. But now we would not be discussing about these anymore. Here in this blog we will focus only on the Rajasthan Results and try to analyse and interpret the people’s Mandate. So lets start with the results itself.
1. Rajasthan Assembly 1993-2018
In the above figure we can see the assembly seats in Rajasthan from 1993-2018. As we can see that from 1993 there is a trend which is still eminent that no single part gets a consecutive term to Govern. This time also the incumbent BJP was wiped out by the Congress.
2. Increasing seats in BJP Rule
In the above figures if you notice very keenly you will see that there are very minor observations and patterns which tells us something that is very unique. For example, whenever BJP came into power it has always increased its last tally. From 95 to 121 to 163. Among which 163 in 2013 was its best till date. But its also very important to note that whenever it got defeated it maintained a respectable position in the state.
3. Decreasing Seats in the Congress Rule
Now, when it comes to Congress we will see that whenever Congress came to power in Rajasthan, its tally decreased as compared with its previous tally. from 153 to 102 to 99. Also its very important to note that whenever the Congress was defeated its tally was also reduced as compared to its previous one. From 76 to 56 to 21. Its worst was 21 in 2014.
Now when I saw this trend and thought about its reason, then I found something more surprising, just below those numbers. Here we could find something.
4. Decreasing seats and Increasing Independents whenever Congress comes in Power.

In the above table we could see that whenever Congress came to power, there was a significant increase in the number of independent MLAs. This means that over a period of time the Congress was more badly hit by the division in its votes whenever it came to power. And this benefited the Independent candidates the most and hence increased their numbers.
But if you ask me that did the BJP suffered by this? then my answer would be NO!
5. Increasing seats and decreasing Independents whenever BJP comes in Power.
From the above Table we can say that whenever BJP came to power, the tally of the Independents was always decreasing. This tells us that how BJP gained a ground in the state with years and how the independents are playing a crucial role in the present mandate.
Won Margin Analysis

Won Margin is the difference of the winning candidate with its nearest rival. The greater the margin the stronger the fight. and the lesser the margin the tougher the fight is. In the below table we could see that the Margins are divides into 11 classes ranging from 0-2500 to 50000+. This indicates the Marginal votes by which the Candidates won their respective seats. These classes are clubbed together into 4 zones which has its own significance with respect to the Margins.
Won Margin
From the above figure we can classify the zones as further,
Green zone : This is the safest zone. The amount of candidates in this zone the stronger the party and its vote base is.
Blue zone : Its range is between 10000-50000. It is a good zone which indicates the strength of the party along with the green zone.
Orange zone : Its range is 5000-10000. In case of a strong anti- incumbency, these seats are most likely to find an alternative.
Red Zone : Its range is from 0-2500 votes. It is also called as the danger zone. The results of these seats can go on either way. There are candidates who have lost their seat by single digits also.
Won Margin Zones
In the recent election, the congress maintained its performance in all the 4 zones. It bagged 27/44 seats in the Green zone and 45/83 seats in the Blue Zone which Indicates a strong voting on their side. We can even say that Congress has a surge and can even give a pocketful of seats in the Loksabha 2019.
BJP surged well in the Red and the Orange Zone with 17/39 and 15/33, which indicated that it gave a tough fight to the Congress. As per the Tradition of the Rajasthan voters, it was sure for the BJP to loose, but not too badly, as we see from the table. They are at a respectable position in the opposition.
We have already discussed that how the seats of others increases whenever the Congress comes in power. Here we could see how the others hold a strong position in the Blue zone, whereas they were ever able to gain tough seats in red zone.
Analysis of Seat nature
Now we will discuss the nature of the seats and which party still hold a ground in their good as well as in their bad times. For this I have analysed the nature of the seats and then found the number of seats that showed the same nature and after the analysis I inferred the below observations.
Seats of Congress
From the above we can infer very crucial info. In addition to the above 1 would like to add that there are 24 such seats which went to the ruling party from last 4 elections. Means with the BJP when it came to power and with the INC when they came to power.
Note: Last point says that 64 seats are such that they are won thrice in the last 4 elections. Whereas point 2 says that 8 sears are won three times in a row only. Same for the below chart as well.
Seats of BJP
Here the BJP has got a big loss of around 90 seats and also lost the power. But very interesting to observe that it still holds a very strong position in the region as it has 17 seats in the region which are undefeated from last 4 elections.
Apart from this calculations it is very important to note the role of Independents and especially BSP because it won 6 crucial seats in the region. And as she expected that the congress would need the support of the others, she is playing the King Maker.
This was one of the most interesting elections till date. It was hard to predict whether which side the mandate goes. But still as a small analyst I did this small analysis. Below is the screenshot of my status which I kept on my whatsapp status. Here, my number for the congress was 90% correct. Only the point that the independents increases when Congress comes in power was missed by me. 
   
My Predictions for Rajasthan 2018.
                             
On 11th of December, It was a very tough day for me. Because I slept only 3 hours that day and covered all the trends and followed all the details on TV. But yes reading between lines, between 2 sentences and interacting with numbers is all that amazes me. 
I hope you would have liked this blog. If yes, please write to me about it in the comments. Do Like and Share your suggestions. They will always help me to grow and learn a bit more. Stay tuned!!!

Sabarimala Tradition: Doubts and Answers.

There was chat between two brothers on the Sabarimala Issue on Facebook. one brother was an atheist while the other an theist. They had a very sensible debate on a very heated topic. I found it worth sharing so here it is… 


Me: Questions please!!!

Bro: Women have the right to enter the temple. And no one has a f**k in right to stop them.
Not even the god sitting inside.
No matter bleeding or normal, no God will ever treat his devotee untouchable!
All those bhakts (bhakts of Ayyappa) protesting for not letting women in are just fighting for nothing but anti ‘women’s rights’

Me: Temple is not a place of prayer… They are build for specific purposes…!
Temples are not places for social activities where everyone can claim a right…!
Temples are places where Beliefs are preserved!!!
Bleeding in Our Religion is never taken as impure… We have a temple of the bleeding Goddess called the Kamakhya Devi temple in Assam…!
300000 women believe in Ayyappa and they patiently waited outside the temple because the know the actual Tradition and hence are the true Devotees!!!
3 among the 2 women who tried to enter the temple were not Hindus… And the third was just doing her task assigned by her Company…!
Now where is the true Devotee here???

Bro:  Were those 300000 women supposed to be entering temple later ? Just clarify for me…

Me: Those Women have noted a sincere and nonviolent protest against the ones entering the temple!!!

Bro:  After the verdict….
Were women peacefully allowed inside?

Me: when it was clear that the situation was critical… Why were the 3 activists forced to enter with 100 policemen???
Is the 3 women’s ego more imp than the critical situation!!!???

Bro: Those 3 women are idiot. Let’s keep them aside. That’s not my concern.
All I am asking is are those 300000 women who were waiting out,
allowed later into temple?

Me: If those women have the intention to enter the temple then would have joint the 3 activists!!!
But they didn’t!!!
They respected the tradition and the Deity!!!

Bro: Tell me why women should not go inside temple?
It’s not that 300000 woman didn’t, that means they’re right. They might be victims of misogyny too…

Maybe those 3 are standing for the right….which the 3 lakhs are ignorant about ! 
Why not women? What religion stops them?

Me: Constitution runs on Logic and Proofs!!!
Religion lives on Beliefs and faith!!!
It is the Belief that sees the Divine God in the Stone!!!
But logic will see stone as a stone!!!
That’s the difference!!!

Bro: Why not let women pray to that stone?

Me: If u think it’s a stone then where comes the question of praying???
Religion is beyond Logic!!!

Bro:   It’s not about me here…..
Why disallow women…who have faith of God in that stone?

Me: Do u think anyone of the activists was a sincere devotee??
Can u defend even a single one???

Bro:  They were definitely devotees of woman rights. And maybe their success would have let to 300000 women finally worshiping Ayyappa again…
Our point of concern is not those 3 ladies.
Just a simple point. Why shouldn’t women enter ? As simple as that..
Why not women?

Because if “tradition” or “religion” is all that you have ..
Then triple talaq too should have not been interrupted.
Give a solid base. Why not women inside?

I’m not expecting logic….
But people’s reason for not allowing women. That might also be some faith mentioned in some religious texts. If written somewhere…show us that at least.
Not necessarily demanding logic from you. But a source of action.


Me: Nice Question!!!

Ayyappa is a Celibate Deity!!!
Who sat in penance in Sabarimala, abstained from sex and alcohol. It’s the deity’s will that anyone who followed the 41 day penance that he suffered along with all the other rules that I have noted in My_Blog_Sabarimala_Tradition then and then only he would give Darshan to the Devotee!!!
The penance that the true Devotee goes through is his own experience of life, that makes him closer to the deity.!!


Earlier when there were no modes of transport this ritual was started. The Terrain if u see is very difficult. Surrounded by the Tigers and the wild life’s then!!!
In such a condition the devotee has to spend the 41 days of penance!!!
This u could say as test of the devotee!!!


But if see that a women in her fertile age has to suffers few days of pain in their menstruation cycle!!
Women have to face this condition even in the days of penance at least once!!!
This made the trekking of the women miserable and hence in-completion of the test of penance.
Keeping this in mind the then priests hence made a law or a rule to keep the fertile age women away from the trekking and so the penance. Once they complete this age they are free to visit!!!
That’s why the traditional of waiting was installed in the women of the particular age group!!!

This is followed in respect to the Deity!!!
This is not a discrimination… It’s a respect to the Deity!!!!
This does not exploit a women’s life or an individual like the Triple Talaq!!!

In Triple Talaq the women is exploited!
Here it’s not the case!!!
Even the Devasom Board accepted the entry of those women who completes the journey of penance!!!
But the point was over thrown by the SC!!!
Hindus have deep faith in the Ayyappa!!!
That’s y the 300000 Hindu Women waited and the 3 activists
2 non Hindus and one a planted journalists created the scene to gain TRP!!


Bro:  So women are allowed after a certain age?

Me: It’s not about who is allowed it’s about what is the best for an Individual… Taking in account all the factors!!!

Bro:  Do all devotees need to go through that physical test of penance to enter and pray to Ayyappa?

Me: Yes… The penance is the core of the Tradition!!!

Bro: Are women allowed after fertile age?

Me: Yes… Women below 10 and above 50 are only involved in the penance!!

Bro: What if woman of age 30 comes and agrees to go through penance and that she can go through all of it…..will you let her ?

Me: who m I to let her… The point was put before the SC… but Lawyer Manu Singhvi denied it… And the SC too…

But it was only the Women who understood and knew the importance of Faith in Hindu Society… That’s y the only Lady Judge gave her verdict against the dominating males….!

Bro: You means not literally you….
Anyone related to Sabarimala is what I meant to ask
Well… We don’t completely know what arguments had been given in the court. Maybe there was a strong counter which led to 2 judges go otherwise.
Who knows!’

Me: I have read an article where I got this piece of info!!!

Me:Any questions bro???

And a long silence…!

Sabarimala Tradition

We all are aware of the Sabarimala Verdict by the SC. The Supreme Court has abolished the ban on Women between the age group of 10-50 which is their fertile years. Earlier the Kerala High Court had maintained the ban where the State Government itself supported this position in 1991. Now the issue has come up once again so we need to look into it from all the possible perspectives.
In this blog we would see what the actual tradition of the Sabarimala Shrine is! Later in other blogs we will discuss on other perspectives along with the issues related to the Shrine.
Ayyappa Swami is an Hindu Deity, a Representative of the God. He is a Naishtika Brahmachari deity which means a celibate deity. According to a story Swami Ayyappa decided to live the life of a celibate. He restrained himself from not only marriage but any sort of contact with the feminine gender. He lived his life in the penance and also abstained from any sort of distortion like alcohol, etc. In his respect his father build a temple which is today’s Sabarimala temple, where the deity resided and spent his days of penance. He also resolved to solve the problems and questions of his devotees who successfully completes the 41 days of penance consisting of different difficult challenges and activities. This is somehow similar to the Pandharpur Vaari that is held in the Maharashtra. Let us see some of the important rules followed bu the devotees.
  • The devotees are expected to dress-up like sadhus only in blue and black. 
  • They are expected to fast partly, and eat only certain type of pure veg food.
  • This is 18 miles long group trek, which consists of people without any caste or social discrimination. 
  • There are men of all the ages joining the trek. 
  • Young girls and older women also join. But the women between the fertility age group are advised not to trek for certain reasons which will be discussed in brief. 
  • During the trek all the devotees call each other ‘Swami’. 
  • The devotees wear simple dress on the day of the pilgrimage up the hills and through the forest, many go barefoot, carry irumudi (a walking stick for regional Hindu yogis with two compartment little bag sometimes carried on head), wear Tulsi leaves and Rudraksha beads around their neck (symbolism for Vishnu and Shiva) while fellow Hindus gather along the trek path, cheering and helping them complete their journey
  • They collect flowers from the western ghats to offer the deity. 
  • Also they are needed to bathe in the Pambar river before they visit the actual Sabarimala temple.
  • During the entire trek all the devotees are expected to restrain from any kind of violence, sex, and alcoholism. 
  • All their mind should be focused only in the devotion for Ayyappa, which is the main motive.
  • After the long trek there are 18 divine steps to the sanctum sanctorum of the Ayyappa Swamy Temple.
  • Each step is a sacred one with a very deep meaning and understanding.
  • Only the one’s completing the 41 days trek are allowed to walk through these steps.
This all about the Sabarimala Shrine and its divine rituals. Now  let us see some important significance of the temple.
  • The temple is not like the regular temple, it is opened only at few occasions throughout the year. Like during the Mandal Pooja, Makar Sankranti, Maha Vishnu Sankranti and the first 5 days of every Malayalam month.
  • There are number of other temples of the same deity across the world. But rules for women to visit the shrine is only followed in this Temple only. The reason behind this is the temple being the first of its kind where all the rules for the devotees are followed very strictly by the Devasom and the Devotees. 
  • Secondly, one of the main reason is the terrain where the temple is located. The rules were made during the time where there were no transport facilities. Also it could be difficult for the women in the fertile years to do 41 day long trekking.
  • Third and important one is the belief that the deity is Naishtika Brahmachari. And every devotee who has faith in the deity and respect him will accept him as he is and respect his decision by not disturbing his celibacy. Its not a discrimination but a respect for the deity’s decision to remain a celibate.
  • The 18 sacred steps to the sanc tum sanctorum of the Shrine is divine in its own way. There are many stories related to the significance of the 18 steps. But According to one of them they say that the deity was the master of 18 weapons. Covering each step, the deity would leave each weapon on each step before entering into the Idol of the Sanctum Sanctorum.
This was all about the Tradition of the Sabarimala Shrine. In the Next blog we will cover the important issues and queries related to the Shrine and its tradition.