On 11th of December The Election results of the 5 very crucial States were out. Where BJP lost its power in 3 of its Strong states, while Congress did a good comeback by performing well in these three states. Telangana and Mizoram went with the clear sweep to the TRS and the MNF resp. But now we would not be discussing about these anymore. Here in this blog we will focus only on the Rajasthan Results and try to analyse and interpret the people’s Mandate. So lets start with the results itself.
|1. Rajasthan Assembly 1993-2018|
In the above figure we can see the assembly seats in Rajasthan from 1993-2018. As we can see that from 1993 there is a trend which is still eminent that no single part gets a consecutive term to Govern. This time also the incumbent BJP was wiped out by the Congress.
|2. Increasing seats in BJP Rule|
In the above figures if you notice very keenly you will see that there are very minor observations and patterns which tells us something that is very unique. For example, whenever BJP came into power it has always increased its last tally. From 95 to 121 to 163. Among which 163 in 2013 was its best till date. But its also very important to note that whenever it got defeated it maintained a respectable position in the state.
|3. Decreasing Seats in the Congress Rule|
Now, when it comes to Congress we will see that whenever Congress came to power in Rajasthan, its tally decreased as compared with its previous tally. from 153 to 102 to 99. Also its very important to note that whenever the Congress was defeated its tally was also reduced as compared to its previous one. From 76 to 56 to 21. Its worst was 21 in 2014.
Now when I saw this trend and thought about its reason, then I found something more surprising, just below those numbers. Here we could find something.
|4. Decreasing seats and Increasing Independents whenever Congress comes in Power.|
In the above table we could see that whenever Congress came to power, there was a significant increase in the number of independent MLAs. This means that over a period of time the Congress was more badly hit by the division in its votes whenever it came to power. And this benefited the Independent candidates the most and hence increased their numbers.
But if you ask me that did the BJP suffered by this? then my answer would be NO!
|5. Increasing seats and decreasing Independents whenever BJP comes in Power.|
From the above Table we can say that whenever BJP came to power, the tally of the Independents was always decreasing. This tells us that how BJP gained a ground in the state with years and how the independents are playing a crucial role in the present mandate.
Won Margin Analysis
Won Margin is the difference of the winning candidate with its nearest rival. The greater the margin the stronger the fight. and the lesser the margin the tougher the fight is. In the below table we could see that the Margins are divides into 11 classes ranging from 0-2500 to 50000+. This indicates the Marginal votes by which the Candidates won their respective seats. These classes are clubbed together into 4 zones which has its own significance with respect to the Margins.
From the above figure we can classify the zones as further,
Green zone : This is the safest zone. The amount of candidates in this zone the stronger the party and its vote base is.
Blue zone : Its range is between 10000-50000. It is a good zone which indicates the strength of the party along with the green zone.
Orange zone : Its range is 5000-10000. In case of a strong anti- incumbency, these seats are most likely to find an alternative.
Red Zone : Its range is from 0-2500 votes. It is also called as the danger zone. The results of these seats can go on either way. There are candidates who have lost their seat by single digits also.
|Won Margin Zones|
In the recent election, the congress maintained its performance in all the 4 zones. It bagged 27/44 seats in the Green zone and 45/83 seats in the Blue Zone which Indicates a strong voting on their side. We can even say that Congress has a surge and can even give a pocketful of seats in the Loksabha 2019.
BJP surged well in the Red and the Orange Zone with 17/39 and 15/33, which indicated that it gave a tough fight to the Congress. As per the Tradition of the Rajasthan voters, it was sure for the BJP to loose, but not too badly, as we see from the table. They are at a respectable position in the opposition.
We have already discussed that how the seats of others increases whenever the Congress comes in power. Here we could see how the others hold a strong position in the Blue zone, whereas they were ever able to gain tough seats in red zone.
|Analysis of Seat nature|
Now we will discuss the nature of the seats and which party still hold a ground in their good as well as in their bad times. For this I have analysed the nature of the seats and then found the number of seats that showed the same nature and after the analysis I inferred the below observations.
|Seats of Congress|
From the above we can infer very crucial info. In addition to the above 1 would like to add that there are 24 such seats which went to the ruling party from last 4 elections. Means with the BJP when it came to power and with the INC when they came to power.
Note: Last point says that 64 seats are such that they are won thrice in the last 4 elections. Whereas point 2 says that 8 sears are won three times in a row only. Same for the below chart as well.
|Seats of BJP|
Here the BJP has got a big loss of around 90 seats and also lost the power. But very interesting to observe that it still holds a very strong position in the region as it has 17 seats in the region which are undefeated from last 4 elections.
Apart from this calculations it is very important to note the role of Independents and especially BSP because it won 6 crucial seats in the region. And as she expected that the congress would need the support of the others, she is playing the King Maker.
This was one of the most interesting elections till date. It was hard to predict whether which side the mandate goes. But still as a small analyst I did this small analysis. Below is the screenshot of my status which I kept on my whatsapp status. Here, my number for the congress was 90% correct. Only the point that the independents increases when Congress comes in power was missed by me.
|My Predictions for Rajasthan 2018.|
On 11th of December, It was a very tough day for me. Because I slept only 3 hours that day and covered all the trends and followed all the details on TV. But yes reading between lines, between 2 sentences and interacting with numbers is all that amazes me.
I hope you would have liked this blog. If yes, please write to me about it in the comments. Do Like and Share your suggestions. They will always help me to grow and learn a bit more. Stay tuned!!!