5 Takeaways from GHMC Elections 2020

In last November all the eyes in the Political spectrum were on the Hyderabad Municipal Elections. Voting took place on 1st of December and the results were announced on 4th of December.

No single party got a clear majority, but the election has proved a big turning point in the Telangana Politics. I have tried to analyze the election and its implications on Future Politics of South India.

1. Unshakable AIMIM

  • MIM has 44 seats in the last election, and this time they contested only 51 seats. Out of which they were able to maintain their count.
  • It’s interesting to note that out of the 44 seats in 2016 they were able to retain 43 of them.
  • They have very much concentrated power only in 2 zones majorly, which is the central and the South zone.
  • These 2 zones have 93 of the total 150 wards
  • This gives a clear message that the power and presence of MIM are still intact in Hyderabad, even after the aggressive campaign of BJP against them.
  • MIM has a stronghold in areas of Malakpet, Charminar, Santosh Nagar, Kalaknuma, Chandrayangutta, Rajendra Nagar, Karwan, Mehdipatnam, jubilee hills, Goshamahal, Saroor Nagar, Yousufguda, etc.

2. Big Blow to the TRS

  • TRS has won 99/150 seats in the last elections.
  • This time due to the aggressive campaign of BJP they have lost a major chunk to them.
  • They have emerged as the single largest party with 55 seats but are short of a majority by 21 seats.
  • They have straightaway lost 44 seats to the BJP
  • Whereas they are able to retain 52/99 seats they won in 2016.
  • They were able to gains seats from all the zones except the South zone when the party is not able to win even a single seat from 43 overall seats in the zone.
  • TRS has emerged as the single largest party with 55 seats. They are 7 seats ahead of BJP. But the difference in votes share is just 0.35% or just 8400 votes. And this is an alarm for the TRS!
  • Since the formation of the state, there has been Dominion of TRS and MIM majorly. They were in both ways helping each other. But the first time a new player has emerged and made the fight into a trio from the duo.
  • BJP has clearly dented the TRS and emerged as strong opposition to the TRS in the state.
Seats Comparison of GHMC

3. Advent of BJP in Southern Politics

  • BJP had only 4 seats in 2016 with a very rough vote share of 2.5 lac.
  • But this time BJP performed significantly well because of its high voltage and aggressive campaign.
  • They succeeded in attracting the attention of the whole nation towards Hyderabad.
  • They not only fought it like state elections but have even campaigned heavily by involving their main leaders like Amit Shah, JP Nadda, YogiAdityanath, Smriti Irani, Devendra Fadnavis into the Campaign.
  • They increased their tally from 4 to 48 which is 12 times its previous performance.
  • They won 48 seats by creating an impact on all 5 zones. Majorly in the Central and South zone, where their main competitor was MIM.
  • In a very short time BJP has succeeded in emerging a strong Opposition to the KCR lead TRS in the state.
  • This will surely impact the 2023 Assembly Polls.

4. Why was GHMC so Important for BJP ?

  • There are many reasons, like
  • It is one of the Metro-city with more than 1 Cr of urban population
  • The budget of the GHMC is more than 5000/Cr
  • Also as we all know that the BJP less presence in the South, it was evident for them to enter as soon as possible. And GHMC came as an opportunity.
  • As per the state politics the TRS enjoyed power with very weak opposition.
  • But BJP has not only emerged as a strong opposition but also emerging as an option to TRS, especially after 2019 Loksabha when it won 4 Loksabha seats in Telangana and defeated the daughter of KCR in Nizamabad.
  • Telangana was also important as it was the stronghold of AIMIM chief Akbaruddin Owaisi. And the strategy of BJP to campaign aggressively on its ideological ground has succeeded in entering into the Hyderabad, Telangana Politics.
  • This election was also seen as a test match before the West Bengal Election in upcoming Summer, where MIM is going to field candidates. This will surely dent the TMC majorly.
  • BJP is a cadre-based party and is 24×7 and 365 days into the Election Mode. Due to which the party is able to create momentum among the party workers.
  • Now the party is charged and this advent in GHMC will be taken towards the State Assembly Elections in 2023.

5. Impact on the politics of South India

  • BJP is a party which was called the Party of the Hindi-Heart Land.
  • It had a very minor presence in Southern India except for Karnataka.
  • Besides Karnataka, the party had hardly any presence in the state.
  • But soon after Amit Shah took over as the Presidentship of the BJP, the party made many successful inroads in states where the party was not even a serious player.
  • And their hopes have risen after the results of Loksabha 2019 when the party won 4 seats.
  • Most importantly they were able to defeat the daughter of KCR, TRS party Chief in Nizamabad.
  • Many times the mainstream media don’t even put a headline of Municipality elections. But this time the party made such an impact that people from all over the Nation were curious about the election results.
  • Amit Shah who was hardly seen in Bihar, took so much interest in Hyderabad, was the main reason for the interest of the Media.
  • Also the politics in Telangana was very lenient till BJP took Interest.
  • Now this advent of BJP will have repercussions on the Telangana Assembly Elections in 2023.
  • The party is expanding its roots in the state and hoping to create an impact in the 2023 assembly elections.
  • As per as South India is concerned it is majorly dominated by regional parties, but BJP has succeeded in making inroads in Karnataka and Telangana. In Andhra Pradesh it has succeeded in destroying its former ally Chandrababu Naidu, TDP. also they have good support from YSRCP on few issues. In Tamil Nadu, they have aligned with AIADMK and formed a major alliance with some smaller parties. Also Rajnikant has announced his entry into Politics. Ans as per my knowledge BJP is growing in Kerela but something substantial is yet to here from the ground.
  • Overall if we see the BJP has shifted its focus to East and South of India, wherein 2024, whatever they lose in North-West, will be compensated from these states.

Hope that I have done justice with the topic.
Do share if you like my Blog.

Comments are welcomed.

An Art by a Political Commentator on GHMC Elections

Delhi Elections: Lage Raho Kejriwal…!


– One of the wisest Voters we have ever seen. Bcoz they have voted distinctly in Loksabha and Vidhan Sabha.
This shows how clear and smart they are. They knew who is best for the State and Who is Best for the Nation.
And this is seen not once but twice, in LS 2014, VS 2015 and LS 2019, VS 2020 #Loksabha, #Vidhansabha respectively.

#Freebeez It did work for them. Starting from free water to free Pilgrimages for the senior citizens.
200 unit of Free Electricity for every Household was one of the most popular one.
Then the free metro/bus rides for Women also found effective.

#Shaheen_Baug As this was the only issue where the BJP was hoping to get some entry. It did work. Bcoz the the #Okhla seat where the Shaheen Baug is, is won by the AAP with 70000+ votes with Minority votes Consolidation.
Whereas #Manish_Sisodiya and Atishi the Architect of Educational Model in Delhi had to struggle till the last few rounds.

– AAP had a strong #CM_face whereas the BJP lacked the CM face which would make a mass appeal and consolidate some votes. This gave an edge to AAP in the whole Campaigning as well.

– Only_Local_issues_Matter Many journalist commented that the Delhi had rejected the NPR CAA NRC. But as we have earlier seen that the people had a clear understanding for whom to vote when. This trend is seen twice.

#Lesson_4_BJP : Though the party increased its vote share and seats share they failed to make a dent on the AAP government.
-They must understand that Regional and National issues must be kept separate.
-Local Leadership needs to be given more Opportunities to rise.

-Transfer of #Congress_Votes_to_AAP
-Its clear from the Numbers that there was an informal Understanding where the -Congress didn’t perform in order to help the AAP to win and keep the BJP away from the Power. This strategy was also seen in Jharkhand and Maharashtra as well.
-Bcoz the voters of the AAP are the same as the Congress. So Increase in Congress Votes would indirectly cut the votes of AAP, and hence favouring The BJP.

-BJP yet a Key Player : When I was going through the voter turnout and total votes cast, I found a very interesting thing. Though the Congress lost its vote share by 4.76 lakhs, the addition of AAP is just 52000 votes only. But the most interesting part is that the BJP increased its vote share by around 6.51 Lakhs as compared to 2015. I will disscuss this in a separate blog regarding the total analysis and its reasons.

Atlast we just hope that the AAP keeps on Working as they did And be On their Words!
All the Best #Aam_Aadmi_Party👍
The CM #Arvind_Kejriwal 👍


GOA Congress : Hero to Zero!

Yesterday 10 Congress MLAs defected from the party and merged with the Ruling party BJP. The largest party in the Goa Assembly is now reduced to a handfull of few members. But the real question is How come the condition of the Grand Old Party became so worse?
It didn’t happened in a day. There is a series of events which took place and led to this outcome in the past 28 months.
We have summaries the whole Goa Drama into the respective events. And the changing scenario of the Goa Legislative Assembly.
Hope you find it Interesting!

1. On 11th March 2017 Results of Goa Vidhan Sabha were declared in which the ruling BJP govt got a severe Defeating winning 13 of the 40 seats. While the Congress emerged as the single largest party with 17 seats. It was almost clear that the Congress would form the Govt. But the scenario changes overnight. Within a night all the other MLAs were approached by the BJP and were convinced to support BJP led Govt only if Manohar Parrikar led the Government. And hence the BJP with 13 + 8 allies claimed to form the Government. All the overnight task was undertaken by Nitin Gadkari and the Goa team. Whereas the Congress Goa Observer Digvijay Singh was had no clue about it. And on 13th the BJP formed Government in Goa.
2. On 13th of March one of the Congress MLA Vishwajeet Rane resign from the Assembly stating the he was angry with the Party Leadership for being incompetent to form a coalition even after being the Single largest party. Now the Congress at 16 and the Assembly total at 39.
3. Soon after the Resignation Vishwajeet Rane jumped in BJP and won the By-elections on BJP Ticket. Now the BJP at 14 and Congress 16.
4. Within 2 months 2 more Congress MLA’s resigned from the Assembly. The Mandrem MLA, Dayanand Sopte and Siroda MLA, Subhash Shirodkar send their resignations the party heads. Now both the BJP and Congress at 14 and assembly at 38. As per the law elections are to be held within 6 months of resignation. Elections on these seats were held along with the Loksabha Elections.
5. On 14th February 2019, there was an unexpected death of the Mapusa MLA, Francis D’souza. This brought the BJP to 13 and Congress to 14.
6. The Biggest setback for the BJP was the Death of the GOA CM Manohar Parrikar. This caused a great grief to the party. The Goa Politics was void with a Strong Political Leadership. But within no loss of time Pramod Sawant was selected as the new GOA CM by the party. He successfully passed the floor test also. There were total 11 ministers which included the 2 Deputy CM.
7. On 27 march 2019, 2 of the 3 MGP MLAs merged with the BJP. As the anti-defection law is inapplicable here they just added to the tally if the BJP. Now both the Congress and the BJP are at 14.
8. There were 4 assembly seats vacant due to the resignation of 2 Congress MLAs and passing away of the FORMER CM and the Mapusa MLA. By-elections were held at these seats along with the Loksabha. On 23rd May results were declared. BJP won 3 of the 4 seats but lost the crucial Panaji seat of the Former CM to the Congress Candidate. The 2 defected Congress MLA won from Mandrem and Siroda on BJP Ticket. Now the BJP is at 17 and Congress at 15.
9. And finally 10 of the 15 MLAs defected from the Congress and merged with the BJP. Here also the anti-defection law was not applicable. Due to the incomplete and hurdles in getting the work done in the Constituency urged them to take such a step. It is important to note that this happened after the resignation of Rahul Gandhi as the Party President. The defected MLAs even blamed the weak Central leadership of the party. Now the Congress party is left with just 5 MLAs. And the BJP has doubled its tally from 13 to 27.
This is how the Political scenario in Goa has changed from a Grand old party being the largest and lastly becoming the smallest party in the Assembly.
Similarly even after loosing the election the BJP was on their toes to form and run the Government. 

Now they even don’t need the support of their allies to be in the Ruling Position.
We could infer this as the impact of the Centralized Leadership.

Battle of Rajasthan 2018 Assembly

On 11th of December The Election results of the 5 very crucial States were out. Where BJP lost its power in 3 of its Strong states, while Congress did a good comeback by performing well in these three states. Telangana and Mizoram went with the clear sweep to the TRS and the MNF resp. But now we would not be discussing about these anymore. Here in this blog we will focus only on the Rajasthan Results and try to analyse and interpret the people’s Mandate. So lets start with the results itself.
1. Rajasthan Assembly 1993-2018
In the above figure we can see the assembly seats in Rajasthan from 1993-2018. As we can see that from 1993 there is a trend which is still eminent that no single part gets a consecutive term to Govern. This time also the incumbent BJP was wiped out by the Congress.
2. Increasing seats in BJP Rule
In the above figures if you notice very keenly you will see that there are very minor observations and patterns which tells us something that is very unique. For example, whenever BJP came into power it has always increased its last tally. From 95 to 121 to 163. Among which 163 in 2013 was its best till date. But its also very important to note that whenever it got defeated it maintained a respectable position in the state.
3. Decreasing Seats in the Congress Rule
Now, when it comes to Congress we will see that whenever Congress came to power in Rajasthan, its tally decreased as compared with its previous tally. from 153 to 102 to 99. Also its very important to note that whenever the Congress was defeated its tally was also reduced as compared to its previous one. From 76 to 56 to 21. Its worst was 21 in 2014.
Now when I saw this trend and thought about its reason, then I found something more surprising, just below those numbers. Here we could find something.
4. Decreasing seats and Increasing Independents whenever Congress comes in Power.

In the above table we could see that whenever Congress came to power, there was a significant increase in the number of independent MLAs. This means that over a period of time the Congress was more badly hit by the division in its votes whenever it came to power. And this benefited the Independent candidates the most and hence increased their numbers.
But if you ask me that did the BJP suffered by this? then my answer would be NO!
5. Increasing seats and decreasing Independents whenever BJP comes in Power.
From the above Table we can say that whenever BJP came to power, the tally of the Independents was always decreasing. This tells us that how BJP gained a ground in the state with years and how the independents are playing a crucial role in the present mandate.
Won Margin Analysis

Won Margin is the difference of the winning candidate with its nearest rival. The greater the margin the stronger the fight. and the lesser the margin the tougher the fight is. In the below table we could see that the Margins are divides into 11 classes ranging from 0-2500 to 50000+. This indicates the Marginal votes by which the Candidates won their respective seats. These classes are clubbed together into 4 zones which has its own significance with respect to the Margins.
Won Margin
From the above figure we can classify the zones as further,
Green zone : This is the safest zone. The amount of candidates in this zone the stronger the party and its vote base is.
Blue zone : Its range is between 10000-50000. It is a good zone which indicates the strength of the party along with the green zone.
Orange zone : Its range is 5000-10000. In case of a strong anti- incumbency, these seats are most likely to find an alternative.
Red Zone : Its range is from 0-2500 votes. It is also called as the danger zone. The results of these seats can go on either way. There are candidates who have lost their seat by single digits also.
Won Margin Zones
In the recent election, the congress maintained its performance in all the 4 zones. It bagged 27/44 seats in the Green zone and 45/83 seats in the Blue Zone which Indicates a strong voting on their side. We can even say that Congress has a surge and can even give a pocketful of seats in the Loksabha 2019.
BJP surged well in the Red and the Orange Zone with 17/39 and 15/33, which indicated that it gave a tough fight to the Congress. As per the Tradition of the Rajasthan voters, it was sure for the BJP to loose, but not too badly, as we see from the table. They are at a respectable position in the opposition.
We have already discussed that how the seats of others increases whenever the Congress comes in power. Here we could see how the others hold a strong position in the Blue zone, whereas they were ever able to gain tough seats in red zone.
Analysis of Seat nature
Now we will discuss the nature of the seats and which party still hold a ground in their good as well as in their bad times. For this I have analysed the nature of the seats and then found the number of seats that showed the same nature and after the analysis I inferred the below observations.
Seats of Congress
From the above we can infer very crucial info. In addition to the above 1 would like to add that there are 24 such seats which went to the ruling party from last 4 elections. Means with the BJP when it came to power and with the INC when they came to power.
Note: Last point says that 64 seats are such that they are won thrice in the last 4 elections. Whereas point 2 says that 8 sears are won three times in a row only. Same for the below chart as well.
Seats of BJP
Here the BJP has got a big loss of around 90 seats and also lost the power. But very interesting to observe that it still holds a very strong position in the region as it has 17 seats in the region which are undefeated from last 4 elections.
Apart from this calculations it is very important to note the role of Independents and especially BSP because it won 6 crucial seats in the region. And as she expected that the congress would need the support of the others, she is playing the King Maker.
This was one of the most interesting elections till date. It was hard to predict whether which side the mandate goes. But still as a small analyst I did this small analysis. Below is the screenshot of my status which I kept on my whatsapp status. Here, my number for the congress was 90% correct. Only the point that the independents increases when Congress comes in power was missed by me. 
My Predictions for Rajasthan 2018.
On 11th of December, It was a very tough day for me. Because I slept only 3 hours that day and covered all the trends and followed all the details on TV. But yes reading between lines, between 2 sentences and interacting with numbers is all that amazes me. 
I hope you would have liked this blog. If yes, please write to me about it in the comments. Do Like and Share your suggestions. They will always help me to grow and learn a bit more. Stay tuned!!!

Rafale Deal in Short!


Why we need Rafale Fighter Jets?
India has Pakistan to its west and China to its East. So when there is a war like condition India should have the potential to fight on both the fronts at the same time. To be able to fight on both fronts we need 42-45 squadrons of Fighter Jets and each squadron has 16-18 jets each. So the Indian Air Forces continuously demanded the Government to purchase new Fighter Jets to increase its potential. According to a report India has only 34 squadrons, out of which only 31 are in working condition. Also it is important to note that these squadrons contain 11 squadrons of Sukhoi 30 MKI. These are the latest fighter jets in our Air Force. Other jets in the Air Force are either getting upgraded or getting retired. Till 2020 It is expected that around 14 squadrons will get retired. So till 2020 Air Force will have total 20 plus 3 more squadrons of Sukhoi 30 MKI, which will be made and given to the Air Forces by HAL(Hindustan Aeronautics Limited) till 2020. So this total 23 Squadrons are around half the estimated potential. So the Indian Air Forces continuously forced the Government to purchase new Fighter Jets to increase its potential.
What is Rafale Deal?
In 2000 Government decided to purchase 126 Miraj 2000 Jets, but later this deal was changed. And they decided to purchased 126 MMRCA( Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft). In 2007 decided to purchase 126 MMRCA, for which Manmohan Singh announced a RFP (Request For Proposal). According to this proposal all the Air Craft Companies in the world had to explain their model with all its features in a PPT. This was well known around the world as the Indian-MMRCA tender. This deal was estimated around 1 Lakh 26 thousand Crore Rupees. It was renowned as the Mother of all Defense Deal in the World. All the Air Craft manufacturing Companies in the world gave their presentation in response to the RFP. A number of jets were assessed and in 2011 two Fighter gets were selected, one was the EuroFighter Typhoon and other was The Rafale of Dassault. In 2012 Finally Indian Government gave L1 bidder to Dassault Aviation. L1 bidder is the least bidder and finally conversation started with them on Rafale Deal. According to the deal India wanted 18 Jets to be delivered in the Flyover condition. And other 108 jets to be made in India by the Dassault in partnership with the HAL(Hindustan Aeronautics Limited). one most important point of the deal was that India wanted Dassault to take the quality control responsibility of the 108 jets to be made by the HAL. Talks were going on between Dassault and HAL. But nothing went okay as Dassault did not want to take the responsibility of the jets made by HAL in India. Also there were differences in the expenses of both the Companies. Due to this, the deal couldn’t take place till 2014.
In 2014 also the talks continued between Dassault and Modi Govt. In April 2015 PM Modi went to France and in a press conference he declared that India will purchase 36 Rafale Jets through France Government. So, on 30 July 2015 the MMRCA tender was finally withdrawn. And it was cleared that now the deal is not with the Dassault but with the France Government.
Why is there Controversy around this Deal?
As per the opposition there are various changes in the deal on which there are few allegations by the opposition on the Government. We will discuss these Allegations one by one.
1. Less number of Jets : As per the UPA there were 126 jets proposed whereas NDA’s deal has only 36 jets to be delivered in the fly way condition. As per the Press conference from the Govt, they said that 36 jets will be received in fly way condition and others will be manufactured in India with the help if its offset partner.
2. 2-3 times more pay to the Dassault: As per the opposition Modi Govt’s estimated cost of the deal is 60,000 Crores which is thrice the estimated cost of the UPA’s deal. Now Opposition demanded an answer on this increased cost. Govt says that as it is a Defense deal its cost and other details will not be made public.
3. Technological loss : As per the previous deal Dassault would have had made 108 jets with the partnership of HAL in India, and this would finally help HAL to learn some new Technology. But as per the new deal all the 36 jets will be coming to India in the fly way condition.
4. Financial favor to Reliance: Opposition claimed that the Modi Govt helped the Reliance Company by purchasing the jets at higher cost than the Earlier deal. Govt cleared its stand that India will get more things than before. Dassault took the responsibility that every year there would be minimum 75% jets in the working condition and it will make all the spare parts available till next 7 years.
France Govt Statement
5. Holande’s Remark: One of the allegation is that the former President of the France said that,” India proposed a service group and Dassault negotiated with the Ambani”. He also said that,” We did not have a choice” and ” We did not have a say in this”. In Defense of this The France Govt issued a statement saying that the Govt is in no manner involved in the choice of the Indian Industrial Partners and will be selected by the French Companies. The French Company has full freedom to choose their Indian Industrial Partner. Also the Dassault Aviation has also issued a clarification stating that they have decided to partner withe the India’s Reliance Group.
Dassault’s Statement