11 Lessons from Bihar 2020 Elections

  1. Caste still a factor in Bihar
    • As the voting day was closer and closer, Tejaswi was attracting more and more crowd. But as the voters of Nitish knew this they became more and more silent. This brought them into defense. Usually the floating voter gets influenced with the wave, but here it seemed like this helped in consolidating against the RJD. This I think is due to the caste factor.
    • Caste and social equations were already in favour of NDA, and I think the BJP-JDU knew that in BIHAR it’s more about the caste-religion or social equations. Rather that issues like development, anti-incumbency. And so, they did their campaigning very silently and in organized manner.
    • BJP had a strong hold in West Bihar. Tirhut, Saran Patna used to give them 40-60% of their total seats. While east Bihar was the strong hold of JDU. But this time BJP gained more from East as compared to west. The vote dividers in East has indirectly helped the JDU-BJP in East Bihar.
  2. Gundaraj – still haunting, Nitish still the Sushasan Babu.
    • During a number of interactions, many people openly supported Tejaswi but there were few who reminded us of the Laluji’s Gundaraj. And I could infer from the responses that if youths had more craze about Tejashwi/Chirag, the elder voters used to compare Nitish with Lalu. And they used to definitely say this that even though Nitish has not done anything stupendously great, but his regime is at least better than the Laluji’s Regime.
    • Even I met few college students in Chapra, who were just 17 years old, looked towards Chirag rather than Tejashwi as future CM. When asked about Tejashwi they used to quote him with his father’s regime. This is somewhere I think has proved as a disadvantage to Tejashwi. And that’s the reason that even his father’s image was not there in many of the posters in Bihar.
    • When it comes to Nitish, people have confidence that whatever he had done in Politics, he has never compromised his ethics and his beliefs. His image is still like a Sushasan Babu. He didn’t even own his own home in Patna. Which makes him committed towards his people.
  3. Tejashwi’s Performance
    • RJD performed extremely well in this election according to me. Because this was the first time when Lalu ji was not a part of the Election. This even gave Tejaswi an opportunity to show his Leadership skills. And as a young leader of 31 he has left a mark on everyone’s heart.
    • He made a very good alliance with Congress and the Lefts. Then the campaign was also crowd pulling. He focused more on Social media campaign as well as ground level campaign. He took 10-15 Sabhas daily. This is the actual level of Hard work which is expected from a leader, which is not seen by the Opposition in Centre. The only thing on which the party was relying was the anti-incumbency factor and the young voter. But at last they were not successful in converting crowd into votes. I won’t blame the young champ. He did his best. But one wrong friend can surely pull u down.
    • RJD were successful in gaining seats in Patna, Saran and Magadh region. Which were strong holds of NDA. Also they must be thankful to LJP which helped them indirectly on more than 15 seats
  4. Performance of Left:
    • One of the best parts of the MG was the incorporation of the Left leaning parties in their alliance. Left has sizable presence in some constituencies. And Tejashwi have given them enough chance to prove their worth. 16/29 I think is a good score. At least better that the Congress.
  5. MIM is seen as a rising hope for Muslims in Bihar.
    • The unexpected rise of MIM in Bihar is indicative that if Secular parties like Congress and RJD won’t deliver then they may shift towards an Extreme party like MIM.
    • Also, it’s interesting to note that MIM just fielded 20 odd candidates, got 5-6 lakh votes and was able to grab 5 seats in Bihar. This shows how keen they were in this election.
    • Secondly it is said that MIM was like voter cutter for MG. But as per my analysis no seat I found where the RJD lost due to MIM’s candidate.
    • MIM fought on 20 seats amongst which they won 5 seats, 11 seats went to MG and 4 seats went to NDA. And these 4 seats which went to NDA didn’t have MIM as a major voter cutter.
  6. Muslim dominated seats:
    • There are around 38 seats where the Muslim population is greater than 26%. Here it is seen that the NDA has gained a good score. BJP-13, JDU-9, INC-5, RJD-5, CP-1, AIMIM-5.
    • Also, one more point to add is that the MIM has proved to be Seat Cutter than Vote Cutter. Nowhere else there has been a condition where the MG lost any seat due to MIM.
  7. Congress more a liability for Alliances:
    • I think Congress is one of the main reasons behind the defeat of the Mahagathbandhan. Because when an alliance bestows more trust by giving 70 seats, more than its actually strength then it’s the party’s responsibility to perform well.
    • They were hardly able to win 19/70 seats. Even the Communists performed better than Congress. Already they are known for worst in transferring it’s vote bank. But now they are even not able to pull seats with stronger partners. They will not get anything if they today blame MIM for cutting their votes. Even their core voter will search for option if Congress won’t deliver.
    • The biggest disadvantage that the Congress had was they had a straight fight against BJP on 37/70 seats. From which the Congress won only 8/37 while BJP won 29/37 seats. This also could have been the tactics of RJD to give more BJP rival seats to Congress.
    • There is a lack of serious leadership not only in Bihar Congress but also at the Central level.
    • Congress is proving to be a liability for its partners. Like the way it performed in Maharashtra, UP and now in Bihar.
  8. LJP’s successful Gambit:
    • LJP became a serious factor when JDU was trying to pull leaders from RJD and trying to pitch for more seats in the Alliance. When it became stubborn on leaving seats for LJP then the LJP decided to opt out of the Alliance. Here BJP was looking to accommodate LJP but JDU seemed stubborn. And this then went against LJP. And then BJP played the gambit of Pitching LJP candidates against JDU only.
    • At this point only I sensed that LJP was not interested in state politics but they just wanted to show that they can certainly dent JDU. And the objective was achieved. This indirectly helped BJP in being the biggest player of NDA in Bihar. Now BJP has more leverage than JDU in Bihar. And even though LJP failed they are still with BJP at the centre. This was a big lesson for the JDU.
    • LJP dented JDU on 18 seats.
  9. Underestimated JDU:
    • Though everything was not ok for the JDU, its performance was quite good to at least save the NDA. There were 2 major factor s which were against the party. They were the Anti-incumbency and the LJP factor. JDU suffered on 18 seats due to LJP. And the motive of LJP seems successful in denting the numbers of JDU. The voters of JDU are silent and less vocal. Even when we were in Patna, we hardly found any Nitish Kumar’s firm supporter. RJD and BJPs voters were very much vocal.
    • Also, the 15% voters of JDU are the King makers and itself King from the last 5 Elections. The voters of Nitish Kumar are loyal with him and he is equally loyal with them. That’s why they don’t criticize him openly and just go and vote him. It won’t matter whether he goes with right BJP or Left RJD. They just believe in their Leader which is Nitish Kumar. And this has made him indisputable since 5-6 elections till today.
  10. Underestimating VIP, Blunder by Tejashwi:
    • At this point when the fight was so close for MG, it seems like underestimating a small party like the VIP was one of the major blunder of the RJD.
    • Mukesh Sahani, the son of Mallah, has around 10-15 lakh voters in Bihar. He just wanted handful of seats to represent his people. And the first priority he gave was to RJD led MG. But we all saw how he was forced to leave the alliance.
    • And the spontaneous decision taken by Mukesh Sahani today seems like a wise decision. This will surely haunt the RJD now. Because they didn’t saw the support of 10-15 Lakh Mallah voters. And at this position when he is able to grab 4 seats, he becomes a crucial player in Bihar Politics. Even the extra 20 seats of Congress if given to VIP could have gained better results.
    • Today even though Mukesh Sahani has lost his own seat but he has proved as a strong Leader of his Community on state level. This will surely haunt the RJD.
  11. BJP – The Smartest Player:
    • I would claim BJP as the smartest player in Bihar Elections 2020. There are 2 factors behind my claim. First is the way they kept their flock together and secondly the calculated move of LJP’s gambit.
    • Giving the CM post to JDU is itself benefiting the BJP by keeping its flocks together. Like in Maharashtra where the party was divided into factions in 2019, they wanted to avoid this in Bihar by giving a face.
    • This also has given BJP enough time to groom and test few faces in coming 5 years. CM face is a crisis in BJP Bihar. That’s why they chose Nitish to keep their flock together. This also gave a strong message to Shivsena, that they stand by their words, and they didn’t gave any word to them before Maharashtra 2019 Elections.
    • The strategy of BJP was straight and clear. They retained tickets of 51/53 MLAs and targeted seats which they loss by less than 11000 in 2015. This showed that they were confident about 70 seats. That’s why when LJP opted out from NDA, they smartly convinced LJP to not to field candidates against them. This helped them in increasing their leverage in the alliance.
    • It seems like BJP learned from NCP that it’s not about the CM post but about the leverage you have in an alliance and the perception you build in the minds of people.

Bihar Election was my First Election where I experienced it from ground. The results were unexpected but the lessons learned will be life long cherishing. Hope you like my Blog. Please feel Free to share your views and thoughts. Thank You!

Delhi Elections: Lage Raho Kejriwal…!

#Delhi_Elections_2020

– One of the wisest Voters we have ever seen. Bcoz they have voted distinctly in Loksabha and Vidhan Sabha.
This shows how clear and smart they are. They knew who is best for the State and Who is Best for the Nation.
And this is seen not once but twice, in LS 2014, VS 2015 and LS 2019, VS 2020 #Loksabha, #Vidhansabha respectively.

#Freebeez It did work for them. Starting from free water to free Pilgrimages for the senior citizens.
200 unit of Free Electricity for every Household was one of the most popular one.
Then the free metro/bus rides for Women also found effective.

#Shaheen_Baug As this was the only issue where the BJP was hoping to get some entry. It did work. Bcoz the the #Okhla seat where the Shaheen Baug is, is won by the AAP with 70000+ votes with Minority votes Consolidation.
Whereas #Manish_Sisodiya and Atishi the Architect of Educational Model in Delhi had to struggle till the last few rounds.

– AAP had a strong #CM_face whereas the BJP lacked the CM face which would make a mass appeal and consolidate some votes. This gave an edge to AAP in the whole Campaigning as well.

– Only_Local_issues_Matter Many journalist commented that the Delhi had rejected the NPR CAA NRC. But as we have earlier seen that the people had a clear understanding for whom to vote when. This trend is seen twice.

#Lesson_4_BJP : Though the party increased its vote share and seats share they failed to make a dent on the AAP government.
-They must understand that Regional and National issues must be kept separate.
-Local Leadership needs to be given more Opportunities to rise.

-Transfer of #Congress_Votes_to_AAP
-Its clear from the Numbers that there was an informal Understanding where the -Congress didn’t perform in order to help the AAP to win and keep the BJP away from the Power. This strategy was also seen in Jharkhand and Maharashtra as well.
-Bcoz the voters of the AAP are the same as the Congress. So Increase in Congress Votes would indirectly cut the votes of AAP, and hence favouring The BJP.

-BJP yet a Key Player : When I was going through the voter turnout and total votes cast, I found a very interesting thing. Though the Congress lost its vote share by 4.76 lakhs, the addition of AAP is just 52000 votes only. But the most interesting part is that the BJP increased its vote share by around 6.51 Lakhs as compared to 2015. I will disscuss this in a separate blog regarding the total analysis and its reasons.

Atlast we just hope that the AAP keeps on Working as they did And be On their Words!
All the Best #Aam_Aadmi_Party👍
The CM #Arvind_Kejriwal 👍

#Delhi_Election_Results_2020🙏

Battle of Rajasthan 2018 Assembly

On 11th of December The Election results of the 5 very crucial States were out. Where BJP lost its power in 3 of its Strong states, while Congress did a good comeback by performing well in these three states. Telangana and Mizoram went with the clear sweep to the TRS and the MNF resp. But now we would not be discussing about these anymore. Here in this blog we will focus only on the Rajasthan Results and try to analyse and interpret the people’s Mandate. So lets start with the results itself.
1. Rajasthan Assembly 1993-2018
In the above figure we can see the assembly seats in Rajasthan from 1993-2018. As we can see that from 1993 there is a trend which is still eminent that no single part gets a consecutive term to Govern. This time also the incumbent BJP was wiped out by the Congress.
2. Increasing seats in BJP Rule
In the above figures if you notice very keenly you will see that there are very minor observations and patterns which tells us something that is very unique. For example, whenever BJP came into power it has always increased its last tally. From 95 to 121 to 163. Among which 163 in 2013 was its best till date. But its also very important to note that whenever it got defeated it maintained a respectable position in the state.
3. Decreasing Seats in the Congress Rule
Now, when it comes to Congress we will see that whenever Congress came to power in Rajasthan, its tally decreased as compared with its previous tally. from 153 to 102 to 99. Also its very important to note that whenever the Congress was defeated its tally was also reduced as compared to its previous one. From 76 to 56 to 21. Its worst was 21 in 2014.
Now when I saw this trend and thought about its reason, then I found something more surprising, just below those numbers. Here we could find something.
4. Decreasing seats and Increasing Independents whenever Congress comes in Power.

In the above table we could see that whenever Congress came to power, there was a significant increase in the number of independent MLAs. This means that over a period of time the Congress was more badly hit by the division in its votes whenever it came to power. And this benefited the Independent candidates the most and hence increased their numbers.
But if you ask me that did the BJP suffered by this? then my answer would be NO!
5. Increasing seats and decreasing Independents whenever BJP comes in Power.
From the above Table we can say that whenever BJP came to power, the tally of the Independents was always decreasing. This tells us that how BJP gained a ground in the state with years and how the independents are playing a crucial role in the present mandate.
Won Margin Analysis

Won Margin is the difference of the winning candidate with its nearest rival. The greater the margin the stronger the fight. and the lesser the margin the tougher the fight is. In the below table we could see that the Margins are divides into 11 classes ranging from 0-2500 to 50000+. This indicates the Marginal votes by which the Candidates won their respective seats. These classes are clubbed together into 4 zones which has its own significance with respect to the Margins.
Won Margin
From the above figure we can classify the zones as further,
Green zone : This is the safest zone. The amount of candidates in this zone the stronger the party and its vote base is.
Blue zone : Its range is between 10000-50000. It is a good zone which indicates the strength of the party along with the green zone.
Orange zone : Its range is 5000-10000. In case of a strong anti- incumbency, these seats are most likely to find an alternative.
Red Zone : Its range is from 0-2500 votes. It is also called as the danger zone. The results of these seats can go on either way. There are candidates who have lost their seat by single digits also.
Won Margin Zones
In the recent election, the congress maintained its performance in all the 4 zones. It bagged 27/44 seats in the Green zone and 45/83 seats in the Blue Zone which Indicates a strong voting on their side. We can even say that Congress has a surge and can even give a pocketful of seats in the Loksabha 2019.
BJP surged well in the Red and the Orange Zone with 17/39 and 15/33, which indicated that it gave a tough fight to the Congress. As per the Tradition of the Rajasthan voters, it was sure for the BJP to loose, but not too badly, as we see from the table. They are at a respectable position in the opposition.
We have already discussed that how the seats of others increases whenever the Congress comes in power. Here we could see how the others hold a strong position in the Blue zone, whereas they were ever able to gain tough seats in red zone.
Analysis of Seat nature
Now we will discuss the nature of the seats and which party still hold a ground in their good as well as in their bad times. For this I have analysed the nature of the seats and then found the number of seats that showed the same nature and after the analysis I inferred the below observations.
Seats of Congress
From the above we can infer very crucial info. In addition to the above 1 would like to add that there are 24 such seats which went to the ruling party from last 4 elections. Means with the BJP when it came to power and with the INC when they came to power.
Note: Last point says that 64 seats are such that they are won thrice in the last 4 elections. Whereas point 2 says that 8 sears are won three times in a row only. Same for the below chart as well.
Seats of BJP
Here the BJP has got a big loss of around 90 seats and also lost the power. But very interesting to observe that it still holds a very strong position in the region as it has 17 seats in the region which are undefeated from last 4 elections.
Apart from this calculations it is very important to note the role of Independents and especially BSP because it won 6 crucial seats in the region. And as she expected that the congress would need the support of the others, she is playing the King Maker.
This was one of the most interesting elections till date. It was hard to predict whether which side the mandate goes. But still as a small analyst I did this small analysis. Below is the screenshot of my status which I kept on my whatsapp status. Here, my number for the congress was 90% correct. Only the point that the independents increases when Congress comes in power was missed by me. 
   
My Predictions for Rajasthan 2018.
                             
On 11th of December, It was a very tough day for me. Because I slept only 3 hours that day and covered all the trends and followed all the details on TV. But yes reading between lines, between 2 sentences and interacting with numbers is all that amazes me. 
I hope you would have liked this blog. If yes, please write to me about it in the comments. Do Like and Share your suggestions. They will always help me to grow and learn a bit more. Stay tuned!!!