Bihar Elections Prediction
- RJD: According to me RJD has understood that their MY formula is not sufficient to win the elections and the BJP-JDU have successfully defeated this formula. So by understanding their limitations the RJD has chalked out a new formula of Social Engineering where it has consolidated its core and focused on making its party, open for all like BJP. And the most important part of this strategy was to attract the youths who have not seen the Lalu Prasad’s Regime. So there are cases where the is Nitish supporter and his own son is Tejashwi supporter. This is because the father could easily compared the Lalu Raj with Nitish’s Raj. And so the formula becomes MYY- Muslims, Yadavs, youths(from all). Even if we minus the JDU’s vote bank last time, RJD will get JDU’s minority vote share.
- Congress: It was a lottery for Congress to get 70 Seats in an alliance where it actually has very less strength. But this strength came with a disadvantage that RJD gave Congress most of its weak seats. In Bihar it is quite clear that BJP is more stronger than the Congress. and Congress is weak in transferring it’s vote share to its allies. Congress has a disadvantage of facing direct fight with BJP only 37 seats. They will not cross single digit according to my Prediction. This could have been the strategy of RJD as well. They will not cross 10% in vote share.
- Communists: If Congress is weak in MG then I would say Communists is strong in MG. This will benefit the RJD. They are fighting on 29 seats. And the way they have given their 100% is commendable. People from JNU and Southern states came to Bihar for Campaigning.
- BJP : I think the wisest player in the whole Campaign was BJP. Because it knew that all the anti-incumbency was against Nitish Kumar. So posing Chirag Paswan only against JDU has helped them to shift all the blame on Nitish Kumar. Also the LJP factor has helped them to keep its voters intact. Also it has successfully confused the Anti-incumbency voters by posing Chirag as an potential Opposition to Nitish Kumar.
- JDU : JDU will be the most damaged as per my opinion. But it will still gain support of its natural voters. Only it will loose it’s minority voters. And also a sizeable vote share of the Rajputs. This is because LJP has given tickets to many Rajput leaders and also it’s unclear whether the BJP would 100% transfer it’s vote to JDU or some to LJP.
- HAM : They are fighting on 7 seats. They are know for transferring vote share to its allies.
- VIP : Its quite hard to predict but it have sizeable voteshare in Bihar and is fighting on 11 seats.
- LJP: The very unexpected player in this Election is proving to be a spoiler for JDU. They will get full support of their traditional voters. The thing they will gain is the votes of Uppercaste and Rajputs who are traditionally BJP voters. Lack of coordination on ground between BJP-JDU voters indicates that all is not fine in NDA. And there is a clear doubt that whether the BJP’s Votebank will be transferred to JDU or not. Bcoz even many of the defects of BJP are given tickets in LJP who are from RSS background.
There is a clear edge for MG. After seeing this it seems like there could be hung assembly but the most interesting part that even if both will get same voteshare there will be a wide difference when they will be converted into seats.
And the reason for this is the coordination of parties with the alliances. The coordination with MG was seen very much smooth as compared to NDA. Also there was clarity regarding all the concerns among the alliance. While in NDA the LJP had openly opposed Nitish Kumar and opt out of the alliance creating doubt on CM. But the LJP was equally soft regarding BJP. and so they fielded no candidates against the BJP. LJP will prove as a vote cutter for JDU. This move was played to ensure that the JDUs seats are lessened in the alliance. But this proving to opt out NDA from the government. So all is not well in NDA, to cut short. This might hamper in results. Even if NDAs vote share is greater that MG by not less than 2%. This will not be converted into seats. As the MGs Vote bank is clear, focused and consolidated.
Other smaller Predictions
- NDA will not cross 100
- MG will not cross 140
- BJP will gain more in West Bihar of Tirhut Patna Magadh and Saran region around 40-50
- RJD will loose more to BJP and gain more from JDU
- East Bihar is largely dependent on vote cutters. If parties like MIM/JAP/LJSP gain sizeable vote they will cut the votes of RJD. And hence will profit NDA and BJP majorly.
- Clear majority for Tejashwi will be ensured only if MG sweeps East Bihar and only if it is able to consolidate it’s votebank.
- If RJD fails in areas of Seemanchal and Purnia there will be a hung assembly.
- LJP will damage the JDU on 25-35 seats majorly. Will gain sizeable votes of 2nd and 3rd position on 10-17 seats. And will be able to win 4-11 seats with 5-8% voteshare!
These are just my predictions as a Political Analyst Student. It might even go to another into unexpected direction also. On 10th it will be clear. But as a Student I must keep on studying people’s mandate. And will keep on delivering.
Now lets Wait and Watch!